Excelsior
2/9Wins
1.2Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Excelsior’s results
EredivisieMatchweek 26THE MATCH CENTREExcelsior vs Heerenveen match centre
90′ · Live
1:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
N. Naujoks74′ (pen)
L. Brouwers38′
J. van Overeem67′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%Excelsior
Draw4.3%at full time
Current result estimate95.6%Heerenveen
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Excelsior 4.4% · no further goal 91.9% · Heerenveen 3.7%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.ExcelsiorHeerenveen
2.680Expected goals · API-Football1.690
5Shots on target5
19Total Shots10
51%Ball Possession49%
6Corner Kicks7
4Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
3Goalkeeper Saves4
382Total passes376
284Passes accurate289
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
EredivisieProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 33 | +52 | 81 | — |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 33 | +24 | 62 | — |
| 3 |  Twente | 33 | +23 | 58 | — |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 33 | +23 | 56 | — |
| 5 |  Ajax | 33 | +21 | 55 | — |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 34 | +5 | 53 | ↑ 2 |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 33 | +7 | 51 | ↓ 1 |
| 8 |  Utrecht | 33 | +11 | 50 | ↓ 1 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 33 | +3 | 45 | — |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 33 | -21 | 43 | — |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard | 33 | -12 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 33 | +2 | 38 | — |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 33 | -25 | 37 | — |
| 14 | Excelsior | 34 | -15 | 35 | — |
| 15 |  Telstar | 33 | -7 | 34 | — |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 33 | -19 | 32 | — |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 33 | -23 | 28 | — |
| 18 |  Heracles | 33 | -49 | 19 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Excelsior 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Heerenveen 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Heerenveen
4/9Wins
1.7Goals / game
2.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Heerenveen’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Excelsior
9 matchesResults2 wins · 4 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.2
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals5 of 9
Both teams scored6 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
Heerenveen
9 matchesResults4 wins · 1 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game2.2
Games with 3+ goals7 of 9
Both teams scored7 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Excelsior at home with Heerenveen away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:07 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Eredivisie · 2025/26 · all league matches
ExcelsiorHeerenveen
25Matches played25
26Points earned34
7Wins9
1.0Goals scored / match1.7
1.7Goals conceded / match1.7
5Clean sheets2
6Failed to score5
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Excelsior at home with Heerenveen away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Excelsior
Confirmed formation4-3-3Ruben den Uil
- 1
S. van GasselG - 2
I. BronkhorstD - 4
C. WidellD - 3
R. MeissenD - 15
S. JanssenD - 23
I. YegoianM - 14
L. SchoutenM - 20
L. HartjesM - 30
D. Sanches FernandesF - 10
N. NaujoksF - 11
G. de RegtF
Substitutes (8)
40 · T. Holla
6 · A. Carlen
8 · M. Tielemans
9 · S. Wlodarczyk
24 · G. Cairo
26 · M. Jonathans
29 · M. van Duinen
33 · J. Bergraaf
Heerenveen
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Robin Veldman
- 22
B. KlaverboerG - 45
O. BraudeD - 4
S. KerstenD - 3
M. WillemsenD - 19
V. ZagaritisD - 8
L. BrouwersM - 6
J. van OvereemM - 20
J. TrenskowM - 10
R. MeerveldM - 7
M. RiveraM - 18
L. NordasF
Substitutes (11)
31 · N. Bakker
44 · A. Noppert
17 · N. Hopland
15 · M. Egbring
28 · H. Petrov
35 · I. Ahmed
38 · I. Mulder
36 · N. Courtens
50 · E. Gurbuz
9 · D. Vente
11 · L. Oyen
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Excelsior
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stijn van Gassel | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 54 | — |
| Ilias Bronkhorst | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 50 | 3 |
| Casper Widell | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 63 | 1 |
| Rick Meissen | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 45 | 1 |
| Simon Janssen | 72 | 5.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Irakli Yegoian | 89 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 32 | 4 |
| Lewis Schouten | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 39 | 5 |
| Lennard Hartjes | 72 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 14 | 2 |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 28 | — |
| Noah Naujoks | 90 | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Gyan de Regt | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Miliano Jonathans | 9 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Jerolldino Bergraaf | 18 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Mike van Duinen | 9 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Szymon Włodarczyk | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | 3 | 1 |
| Tijmen Holla | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giuliano Cairo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Carlén | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathijs Tielemans | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Heerenveen
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernt Klaverboer | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 39 | — |
| Oliver Braude | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 4 |
| Sam Kersten | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 47 | 1 |
| Maas Willemsen | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 60 | — |
| Vasilios Zagaritis | 75 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 39 | 4 |
| Luuk Brouwers | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Joris van Overeem | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 56 | — |
| Jacob Trenskow | 86 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Ringo Meerveld | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 1 |
| Maxence Rivera | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | 3 | 27 | — |
| Lasse Selvåg Nordås | 65 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | 7 | — |
| Dylan Vente | 25 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Hristiyan Petrov | 15 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 9 | 1 |
| Nikolai Soyset Hopland | 10 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Nordin Bakker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andries Noppert | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ingmar Mulder | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mats Egbring | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eser Gürbüz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Oyen | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nolhan Courtens | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaiah Ahmed | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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