Real Madrid
8/10Wins
2.4Goals / game
0.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Real Madrid’s results
La LigaMatchweek 5THE MATCH CENTREReal Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano match centre
Full time
4:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Kylian Mbappé14′ (pen)
Álvaro Fernández Carreras17′
Jude Bellingham35′
Kylian Mbappé90+1′
Sergio Camello51′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
2.620Expected goals · API-Football1.210
11Shots on target7
24Total Shots18
56%Ball Possession44%
11Corner Kicks5
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
6Goalkeeper Saves7
543Total passes415
494Passes accurate360
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Real Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Rayo Vallecano 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Rayo Vallecano
3/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
2.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Rayo Vallecano’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Real Madrid
10 matchesResults8 wins · 1 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.4
Goals conceded per game0.8
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
InterHome · UEFA Champions League2–1Real BetisAway · La Liga0–1MalagaHome · La Liga4–0Real SociedadHome · La Liga4–1EspanyolAway · La Liga2–1FC Schalke 04Away · Friendlies Clubs3–0Deportivo La CorunaAway · Friendlies Clubs1–0Ferencvarosi TCAway · Friendlies Clubs2–1FiorentinaHome · Friendlies Clubs2–2LeganesHome · Friendlies Clubs4–1
Rayo Vallecano
10 matchesResults3 wins · 1 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game2.1
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Racing SantanderHome · La Liga3–2BarcelonaAway · La Liga2–5AlavesHome · La Liga1–1SevillaAway · La Liga1–2IpswichAway · Friendlies Clubs0–3CharleroiAway · Friendlies Clubs3–2FeyenoordAway · Friendlies Clubs1–2Heart Of MidlothianAway · Friendlies Clubs1–2Crystal PalaceAway · UEFA Europa Conference League0–1AlavesAway · La Liga2–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Real Madrid at home with Rayo Vallecano away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:59 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
La Liga · 2026/27 · all league matches
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Real Madrid at home with Rayo Vallecano away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Real Madrid
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1José Mourinho
- 1
T. CourtoisG - 24
D. DumfriesD - 16
I. KonatéD - 22
A. RüdigerD - 18
Álvaro FernándezD - 8
F. ValverdeM - 20
Bernardo SilvaM - 25
Y. DiomandeM - 5
J. BellinghamM - 7
Vinícius JúniorM - 10
Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes (12)
2 · Raúl Asencio
12 · T. Alexander-Arnold
6 · E. Camavinga
17 · Marc Cucurella
21 · Brahim Díaz
9 · Endrick
19 · Carlos Espí
15 · A. Güler
4 · D. Huijsen
13 · A. Lunin
27 · Thiago Pitarch
14 · A. Tchouaméni
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Beñat San José
- 25
E. AuderoG - 2
A. RațiuD - 24
F. LejeuneD - 6
P. CissD - 17
Adrià PedrosaD - 36
G. BouareM - 8
Unai LópezM - 14
G. TsitaishviliM - 4
Pedro DíazM - 18
Álvaro GarcíaM - 10
Sergio CamelloF
Substitutes (12)
20 · I. Balliu
23 · Óscar Valentín
15 · Mujaid Sadick
30 · Adrián Molina
3 · M. Kumbulla
22 · Pelayo Fernández
26 · Marco de las Sías
1 · Dani Cárdenas
37 · Rayane Belid
28 · Samu Becerra
9 · Alemão
31 · M. Roman
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Balliu | 5 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| A. Rațiu | 90 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0 |
| F. Lejeune | 90 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 2 |
| P. Ciss | 90 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 1 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | 85 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 2 |
| Unai López | 75 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 58 | 1 |
| G. Bouare | 67 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3 |
| G. Tsitaishvili | 90 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Pedro Díaz | 67 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Álvaro García | 90 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 2 |
| Sergio Camello | 75 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 2 |
| Alemão | 15 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| E. Audero | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 |
| Samu Becerra | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayane Belid | 23 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Dani Cárdenas | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco de las Sías | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pelayo Fernández | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Kumbulla | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrián Molina | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mujaid Sadick | 15 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Óscar Valentín | 23 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1 |
| M. Roman | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Asencio | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D. Dumfries | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 3 |
| A. Rüdiger | 90 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 79 | 0 |
| I. Konaté | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Álvaro Fernández | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 63 | 2 |
| F. Valverde | 45 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Bernardo Silva | 69 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 1 |
| Y. Diomande | 72 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 3 |
| J. Bellingham | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Vinícius Júnior | 89 | 7.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 3 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 90 | 9.0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T. Courtois | 90 | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| E. Camavinga | 45 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1 |
| Marc Cucurella | 1 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brahim Díaz | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Endrick | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Espí | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Güler | 18 | 7.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| D. Huijsen | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Lunin | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thiago Pitarch | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Tchouaméni | 21 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗La Liga table
Current standings · La Liga. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 | DLDWW |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8 | WWLLL |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 | DDWWL |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WLDDL |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | DWLWL |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 | DLLLW |
| 14 |  Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | WDDDL |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 | LLWLW |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 | LLDWD |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | WLDLL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | LLDDL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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