Alaves
4/10Wins
1.8Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Alaves’s results
La LigaMatchweek 38THE MATCH CENTREAlaves vs Rayo Vallecano match centre
90′ · Live
1:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
T. Martinez13′
S. Camello73′
R. Nteka90′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%Alaves
Draw4.5%at full time
Current result estimate95.3%Rayo Vallecano
Another goal8.2%before full time
Next goal: Alaves 4.7% · no further goal 91.8% · Rayo Vallecano 3.4%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.AlavesRayo Vallecano
1.730Expected goals · API-Football1.390
11Shots on target6
19Total Shots13
46%Ball Possession54%
9Corner Kicks5
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
4Goalkeeper Saves10
315Total passes372
248Passes accurate305
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primera DivisiónProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | +59 | 94 | — |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | +42 | 86 | — |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | +26 | 72 | — |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | +18 | 69 | — |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | +11 | 60 | — |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | +5 | 54 | — |
| 7 |  Rayo Vallecano | 39 | -2 | 53 | ↑ 1 |
| 8 |  Getafe | 38 | -6 | 51 | ↓ 1 |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | -9 | 49 | — |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | -2 | 46 | — |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | -12 | 46 | — |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | -15 | 45 | — |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | -8 | 43 | ↑ 2 |
| 14 | Alaves | 39 | -13 | 43 | — |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | -14 | 43 | ↓ 2 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | -6 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | -10 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | -14 | 42 | ↓ 2 |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | -16 | 41 | — |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | -34 | 29 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Alaves 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Rayo Vallecano 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Rayo Vallecano
5/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Rayo Vallecano’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Alaves
10 matchesResults4 wins · 4 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.8
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Rayo Vallecano
10 matchesResults5 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
VillarrealHome · La Liga2–0ValenciaAway · La Liga1–1GironaHome · La Liga1–1StrasbourgAway · UEFA Europa Conference League1–0GetafeAway · La Liga2–0StrasbourgHome · UEFA Europa Conference League1–0Real SociedadHome · La Liga3–3EspanyolHome · La Liga1–0AEK Athens FCAway · UEFA Europa Conference League1–3MallorcaAway · La Liga0–3
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Alaves at home with Rayo Vallecano away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:55 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
La Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
AlavesRayo Vallecano
36Matches played36
40Points earned44
10Wins10
1.2Goals scored / match1.0
1.5Goals conceded / match1.2
4Clean sheets11
10Failed to score12
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Alaves at home with Rayo Vallecano away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
5 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Alaves
2wins5MEETINGS
Rayo Vallecano
3winsMar 2024 – Jan 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with Alaves first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Alaves
Confirmed formation3-5-2Quique Sanchez Flores
- 1
A. SiveraG - 14
N. TenagliaD - 16
V. KoskiD - 24
V. ParadaD - 7
A. PerezM - 19
P. IbanezM - 8
A. BlancoM - 18
J. GuridiM - 21
A. RebbachM - 15
L. BoyeF - 11
T. MartinezF
Substitutes (12)
13 · R. Fernandez
31 · G. Swiderski
4 · D. Suarez
17 · Jonny Otto
22 · I. Diabate
34 · A. Manas
3 · Yusi
9 · M. Diaz
10 · C. Alena
23 · C. Protesoni
6 · A. Guevara
20 · Calebe
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Inigo Perez
- 1
D. CardenasG - 20
I. BalliuD - 16
A. MuminD - 32
N. MendyD - 22
PachaD - 23
O. ValentinM - 15
G. GumbauM - 14
C. MartinM - 4
P. DiazM - 18
A. GarciaM - 11
R. NtekaF
Substitutes (12)
13 · A. Batalla
30 · J. Gil
8 · O. Trejo
24 · F. Lejeune
9 · Alemao
3 · P. Chavarria
33 · J. Vertrouwd
19 · J. de Frutos
6 · P. Ciss
10 · S. Camello
21 · F. Perez
2 · A. Ratiu
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Alaves
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sivera | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 39 | — |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 36 | 1 |
| Ville Koski | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Victor Parada | 33 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 12 | — |
| Ángel Pérez | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 32 | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | 74 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 19 | 3 |
| Antonio Blanco | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 40 | — |
| Jon Guridi | 84 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 4 |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 35 | 2 |
| Lucas Boyé | 84 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 22 | 2 |
| Toni Martínez | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Carlos Benavídez | 57 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 14 | — |
| Denis Suárez | 16 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 16 | — |
| Ander Guevara | 12 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | 12 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Raúl Fernández | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Grégoire Swiderski | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonny Otto | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Youssef Enriquez | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calebe Gonçalves | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Díaz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Cárdenas | 90 | 8.6 | — | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| Iván Balliu | 88 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 41 | 5 |
| Abdul Mumin | 61 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 28 | — |
| Nobel Mendy | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 47 | 2 |
| Pacha | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 43 | 3 |
| Óscar Valentín | 61 | 7.7 | — | 0 | — | 21 | 3 |
| Gerard Gumbau | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 2 | 47 | — |
| Carlos Martín | 38 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 9 | — |
| Pedro Díaz | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 29 | 3 |
| Álvaro García | 45 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 7 | — |
| Randy Nteka | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Sergio Camello | 52 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Jorge de Frutos | 45 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | 29 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 15 | — |
| Alemão | 29 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 6 | — |
| Andrei Rațiu | 8 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Augusto Batalla | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juanpe | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josep Chavarría | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florian Lejeune | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Pérez | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Trejo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Alaves | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Snapshot from 22 May 2026, 16:15 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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