Italy
5/10Wins
1.9Goals / game
1.6Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 2 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Italy’s results
World Cup - Qualification EuropeGroup Stage - 5THE MATCH CENTREItaly vs Estonia match centre
Full time
5:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
M. Kean58′
M. Retegui69′
G. Raspadori71′
M. Retegui89′
A. Bastoni90′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
ItalyEstonia
5.230Expected goals · API-Football0.700
13Shots on target2
40Total Shots4
70%Ball Possession30%
12Corner Kicks3
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves8
632Total passes276
569Passes accurate210
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Italy 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Estonia 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Estonia
2/9Wins
0.9Goals / game
1.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Estonia’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Italy
10 matchesResults5 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.9
Goals conceded per game1.6
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
MoldovaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0NorwayAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–3GermanyAway · UEFA Nations League3–3GermanyHome · UEFA Nations League1–2FranceHome · UEFA Nations League1–3BelgiumAway · UEFA Nations League1–0IsraelHome · UEFA Nations League4–1BelgiumHome · UEFA Nations League2–2IsraelAway · UEFA Nations League2–1FranceAway · UEFA Nations League3–1
Estonia
9 matchesResults2 wins · 1 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game0.9
Goals conceded per game1.8
Games with 3+ goals6 of 9
Both teams scored4 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
NorwayHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–1IsraelHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–3MoldovaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–2IsraelAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–2SlovakiaAway · UEFA Nations League0–1AzerbaijanAway · UEFA Nations League0–0SwedenHome · UEFA Nations League0–3AzerbaijanHome · UEFA Nations League3–1SwedenAway · UEFA Nations League0–3
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Italy at home with Estonia away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:51 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
World Cup - Qualification Europe · 2024/25 · all league matches
ItalyEstonia
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Italy at home with Estonia away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Italy
Confirmed formation4-4-2Ivan Gennaro Gattuso
- 1
G. DonnarummaG - 22
G. Di LorenzoD - 21
A. BastoniD - 13
R. CalafioriD - 3
F. DimarcoD - 7
M. PolitanoM - 18
N. BarellaM - 8
S. TonaliM - 20
M. ZaccagniM - 11
M. KeanF - 9
M. ReteguiF
Substitutes (12)
12 · A. Meret
14 · G. Vicario
2 · R. Bellanova
4 · F. Gatti
5 · M. Locatelli
6 · N. Rovella
10 · G. Raspadori
15 · F. Esposito
16 · D. Frattesi
17 · R. Orsolini
19 · A. Cambiaso
23 · G. Mancini
Estonia
Confirmed formationPending
- 1
K. HeinG - 18
M. Schjonning-LarsenD - 13
M. PaskotsiD - 2
M. KuuskD - 3
J. SalisteD - 10
K. PalumetsM - 5
R. R. SheinM - 4
M. KaitM - 14
P. KristalM - 23
V. SinyavskiyM - 15
R. SappinenF
Substitutes (12)
12 · M. Igonen
22 · K. Vallner
6 · R. Peetson
7 · R. Saarma
8 · H. Anier
9 · I. Yakovlev
11 · M. Ainsalu
16 · J. Tamm
17 · M. Miller
19 · T. Tammik
20 · E. Tur
21 · M. Soomets
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Italy
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 22 | — |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 61 | 3 |
| Alessandro Bastoni | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 94 | 1 |
| Riccardo Calafiori | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 103 | 1 |
| Federico Dimarco | 66 | 8.0 | — | 0 | 5 | 56 | — |
| Matteo Politano | 76 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | 42 | — |
| Nicolò Barella | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 87 | 1 |
| Sandro Tonali | 76 | 8.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 58 | 1 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | 67 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 3 | 30 | — |
| Moise Kean | 84 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | — |
| Mateo Retegui | 90 | 9.7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Andrea Cambiaso | 24 | 7.9 | — | 1 | — | 16 | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | 23 | 9.0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | — |
| Manuel Locatelli | 14 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 21 | — |
| Riccardo Orsolini | 14 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 7 | — |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | 12 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Alex Meret | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guglielmo Vicario | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Gatti | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gianluca Mancini | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolò Rovella | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Frattesi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estonia
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Hein | 90 | 8.3 | — | 0 | — | 49 | — |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | 90 | 5.3 | — | 0 | — | 20 | — |
| Maksim Paskotsi | 80 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| Märten Kuusk | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 38 | 2 |
| Joseph Saliste | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 19 | 1 |
| Kevor Palumets | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 26 | — |
| Rocco Robert Shein | 80 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 21 | 3 |
| Mattias Käit | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 21 | 2 |
| Patrik Kristal | 61 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 9 | 1 |
| Vlasiy Sinyavskiy | 67 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 7 | — |
| Rauno Sappinen | 80 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 13 | — |
| Mihkel Ainsalu | 29 | 5.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Robi Saarma | 23 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 6 | 2 |
| Joonas Tamm | 10 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Markus Soomets | 10 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Henri Anier | 10 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 5 | — |
| Matvei Igonen | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andre Karl Vallner | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rasmus Peetson | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tanel Tammik | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edgar Tur | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ioan Yakovlev | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Miller | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2024/25 STANDINGS
League centre ↗World Cup - Qualification Europe table
Current standings · Group I. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
Norway
Israel
MoldovaTHE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
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