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Premier LeagueMatchweek 33
EnglandTHE MATCH CENTRE

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley match centre

Nottingham Forest badgeNottingham ForestHome · 16 in league
LDLDW
Momentum↗ Rising39/100OlderLatest
Full time
4:1
UK timeStored 90-minute score.
Burnley badgeBurnleyAway · 19 in league
LLDLL
Momentum↓ Low7/100OlderLatest
Goalscorers
City Ground · NottinghamSeason 2025/26Back to matches
Odds & probabilities Pre-match snapshot Home win—Market chance —See match research Draw—Market chance —See match research Away win—Market chance —See match research Odds unavailable 90-minute estimates · prices may change.
THE FINAL WHISTLE

The match in numbers

FULL TIME
Nottingham ForestBurnley
4Corner Kicks4
7Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves1
457Total passes437
373Passes accurate357

— means unavailable.

Statistics snapshot: 293098 min old.

BEYOND THE SCORE

The quality of the chances.

See what the scoreline alone can’t tell you.

UNDERSTAT · RECORDED xG
Nottingham Forest1.44xG

4 goals +2.56 vs xG

CHANCE QUALITYxGFull-time analysis
Burnley0.60xG

1 goals +0.40 vs xG

71%Share of total xG · not a win probability29%

Read the performance, then the result. Compare each team’s goals with its xG to see whether the score matched the chances. Explore individual shots below when available.

Every chance has a story.

Bigger circles mean higher-quality chances. Ringed circles are goals.

Nottingham Forest BurnleyBoth teams attack →
Burnley · James Ward-Prowse · 25′ · Saved Shot · 0.03 xGNottingham Forest · Neco Williams · 34′ · Blocked Shot · 0.05 xGNottingham Forest · Chris Wood · 35′ · Missed Shots · 0.12 xGNottingham Forest · Morgan Gibbs-White · 45′ · Missed Shots · 0.09 xGBurnley · Zian Flemming · 47′ · Goal · 0.45 xGNottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 53′ · Blocked Shot · 0.05 xGNottingham Forest · Morgan Gibbs-White · 53′ · Missed Shots · 0.08 xGNottingham Forest · Morgan Gibbs-White · 63′ · Goal · 0.40 xGBurnley · Lyle Foster · 65′ · Saved Shot · 0.08 xGNottingham Forest · Morgan Gibbs-White · 69′ · Goal · 0.06 xGNottingham Forest · Morgan Gibbs-White · 77′ · Goal · 0.05 xGBurnley · Maxime Estève · 83′ · Blocked Shot · 0.04 xGNottingham Forest · Neco Williams · 87′ · Missed Shots · 0.05 xGNottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 98′ · Goal · 0.50 xG

14 recorded shots · select or tab to a circle · locations normalised to the same attacking direction

View recorded shots as a table 14 shots
Recorded shots · minute shown as elapsed minute + 1
MinuteTeam / playerOutcomexG
25′James Ward-ProwseBurnleySaved Shot0.03
34′Neco WilliamsNottingham ForestBlocked Shot0.05
35′Chris WoodNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.12
45′Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.09
47′Zian FlemmingBurnleyGoal0.45
53′Igor JesusNottingham ForestBlocked Shot0.05
53′Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.08
63′Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestGoal0.40
65′Lyle FosterBurnleySaved Shot0.08
69′Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestGoal0.06
77′Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestGoal0.05
83′Maxime EstèveBurnleyBlocked Shot0.04
87′Neco WilliamsNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.05
98′Igor JesusNottingham ForestGoal0.50

Verified source record refreshed 22 Sep 2026, 19:04 UTC. Post-match data, not a live feed.

How to use expected goals

xG measures chance quality. A shot worth 0.20 xG would be scored about 20 times in 100 comparable attempts. Add the shots together to describe the chances a team created.

Compare the performance with the result. Goals above xG means the team scored more than its chance total; goals below xG means it scored less. It does not prove luck, predict the next result or guarantee a correction.

Keep the context. Penalties, red cards, game state and opponents matter. Use several matches and the home/away filter. xG share is a share of chance quality, not a win probability. Different data providers can calculate different xG values.

CHANCE QUALITY, IN CONTEXT.Understat post-match evidence · separate from Kickoff Edge’s predictions
MODEL OUTLOOK

Match forecast

Model estimate unavailable.

Goals & BTTS

90 minutes

Total goals · 2.5

Over—
Under—

Both teams to score

Yes—
No—

Model estimates unavailable

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Team news & availability

API-Football

Season form /10 · Ability /99 (EA FC 27) · Prev = previous season.

Nottingham Forest

Home0 listed

Availability report unavailable.

Burnley

Away0 listed

Availability report unavailable.

· Ability: EA FC 27 base ratings.

Season overview

Premier League · 2025/26

League season · all league matches

Burnley

32 league matches

20 pts4W8D20L
1.0Goals scored / match1.0
1.4Goals conceded / match2.0
8Clean sheets4
14Failed to score12
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING

Recent form

Last 10 games · all venues and competitions · previous 365 days.

THE STORY SO FAR

Head-to-head

0 recorded meetings

Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.

TEAM SELECTION

Lineups & formations

Starting XIs

Season form /10 · Ability /99 (EA FC 27) · — unavailable.

Nottingham Forest

Formation4-2-3-1Vitor Pereira
  1. 26M. SelsForm 6.8Ability —G
  2. 34O. AinaForm 6.9Ability —D
  3. 31N. MilenkovicForm 6.8Ability 80D
  4. 5MurilloForm 7.0Ability 82D
  5. 3N. WilliamsForm 6.9Ability —D
  6. 6I. SangareForm 7.0Ability 78M
  7. 8E. AndersonForm 7.4Ability —M
  8. 29D. BakwaForm 6.6Ability 76M
  9. 10M. Gibbs-WhiteForm 6.9Ability —M
  10. 21O. HutchinsonForm 6.8Ability —M
  11. 11C. WoodForm 6.6Ability —F
Substitutes (9)

27 · S. OrtegaForm 7.0Ability —

9 · T. AwoniyiForm 6.7Ability —

22 · R. YatesForm 6.7Ability —

25 · L. NetzForm 6.7Ability 73

19 · Igor JesusForm 6.6Ability 77

24 · J. McAteeForm 6.5Ability —

23 · CunhaForm 6.6Ability 75

16 · N. DominguezForm 6.8Ability —

4 · MoratoForm 7.0Ability 75

Burnley

Formation4-2-3-1Mike Jackson
  1. 1M. DubravkaForm 7.0Ability 77G
  2. 2K. WalkerForm 6.6Ability —D
  3. 18H. EkdalForm 6.7Ability 71D
  4. 5M. EsteveForm 6.6Ability 76D
  5. 3Q. HartmanForm 6.5Ability 75D
  6. 20J. Ward-ProwseForm 6.8Ability —M
  7. 16FlorentinoForm 6.7Ability 77M
  8. 10M. EdwardsForm 6.6Ability 75M
  9. 8L. UgochukwuForm 6.7Ability —M
  10. 11J. AnthonyForm 6.8Ability —M
  11. 19Z. FlemmingForm 6.8Ability 76F
Substitutes (9)

13 · M. WeissForm 7.7Ability 70

31 · M. Tresor NdayishimiyeForm 6.5Ability —

4 · J. WorrallForm 6.5Ability —

27 · A. BrojaForm 6.4Ability 72

17 · L. TchaounaForm 6.6Ability 73

29 · J. LaurentForm 6.5Ability —

7 · J. Bruun LarsenForm 6.5Ability 73

9 · L. FosterForm 6.5Ability —

12 · B. HumphreysForm 6.9Ability 74

INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE

Player statistics

This match

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsPassesTackles
Matz Sels996.6———21—
Ola Aina996.7———501
Nikola Milenković995.9———45—
Murillo427.3———313
Neco Williams997.5——1442
Ibrahim Sangaré997.3———513
Elliot Anderson997.3———763
Dilane Bakwa456.5———121
Morgan Gibbs-White8910.03—5302
Omari Hutchinson886.9—1—291
Chris Wood766.5——113—
Jair576.6———32—
Igor Jesus547.91—1133
Ryan Yates236.9—1—7—
Morato116.6———9—
Nicolás Domínguez107.2—1—123
Stefan Ortega———————
Luca Netz———————
James McAtee———————
Taiwo Awoniyi———————

Burnley

PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsPassesTackles
Martin Dúbravka995.3———45—
Kyle Walker996.0———531
Hjalmar Ekdal995.9———49—
Maxime Estève996.0———424
Quilindschy Hartman996.5—1—514
James Ward-Prowse996.2——166—
Florentino Luís836.0———335
Marcus Edwards646.7———183
Lesley Ugochukwu766.2———171
Jaidon Anthony836.2———31—
Zian Flemming847.31—1111
Lyle Foster356.0——1111
Jacob Bruun Larsen236.5———6—
Josh Laurent166.7———72
Loum Tchaouna166.5———11—
Armando Broja156.5———3—
Max Weiss———————
Joe Worrall———————
Bashir Humphreys———————
Mike Trésor———————
2025/26 STANDINGS

Premier League table

League centre ↗

Current standings · Premier League. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Arsenal38267571274485
WWWWW
2Manchester City38239677354278
LDWWD
3Manchester United382011769501971
WWDWW
4Aston Villa38198115649765
WWDLL
5Liverpool381791263531060
DLDLW
6Bournemouth38131875854457
DDWWD
7Sunderland381412124248-654
WWDDL
8Brighton381411135246653
LLWLW
9Brentford381411135552353
DDLWL
10Chelsea381410145852652
LWDLL
11Fulham38157164751-452
WDLLW
12Newcastle38147175355-249
LWDWL
13Everton381310154750-349
LLDDL
14Leeds381114134956-747
LWDWD
15Crystal Palace381112154151-1045
LDLDL
16Nottingham Forest381111164851-344
DLDWW
17Tottenham381011174857-941
WLDWW
18West Ham38109194665-1939
WLLLW
19Burnley38410243875-3722
DLDLL
20Wolves38311242768-4120
DDLDL
THE MARKET VIEW

Match-winner odds

Decimal · 90 minutes
BookmakerNottingham ForestDrawBurnley
Bet3651.484.337.00

Updated 18 Apr 2026, 22:02 UK · Pre-match prices.

AT A GLANCE

Match details

Competition
Premier League
Round
Matchweek 33
Venue
City Ground
Referee
Thomas Kirk, England
Kickoff
19 Apr · 14:00 UK
Match data by API-Football
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