Hamburger SV
2/6Wins
1.3Goals / game
0.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At home, 1 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect Hamburger SV’s results
BundesligaMatchweek 24THE MATCH CENTREHamburger SV vs RB Leipzig match centre
69′ · Live
1:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
F. Vieira22′
Romulo Cardoso36′
Y. Diomande50′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
69′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate3.0%Hamburger SV
Draw17.3%at full time
Current result estimate79.8%RB Leipzig
Another goal48.2%before full time
Next goal: Hamburger SV 23.2% · no further goal 51.8% · RB Leipzig 25.1%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.Hamburger SVRB Leipzig
0.550Expected goals · API-Football2.700
3Shots on target5
6Total Shots11
38%Ball Possession62%
4Corner Kicks5
4Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
3Goalkeeper Saves2
235Total passes388
178Passes accurate342
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Bundesliga Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | +86 | 89 | — |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | +36 | 73 | — |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 35 | +20 | 68 | — |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | +22 | 62 | — |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | +13 | 61 | — |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | +21 | 59 | — |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | -6 | 47 | — |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | -4 | 44 | — |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | -16 | 43 | — |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | -9 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | -14 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | -11 | 38 | — |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 35 | -15 | 38 | — |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | -14 | 32 | — |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | -23 | 32 | — |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | -24 | 29 | — |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Hamburger SV 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
RB Leipzig 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
RB Leipzig
2/7Wins
1.6Goals / game
2.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect RB Leipzig’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Hamburger SV
6 matchesResults2 wins · 4 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game0.8
Games with 3+ goals2 of 6
Both teams scored3 of 6
Past results, not predictions.
RB Leipzig
7 matchesResults2 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game2.0
Games with 3+ goals6 of 7
Both teams scored5 of 7
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Hamburger SV at home with RB Leipzig away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:33 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Bundesliga · 2025/26 · all league matches
Hamburger SVRB Leipzig
22Matches played23
26Points earned41
6Wins12
1.1Goals scored / match1.9
1.5Goals conceded / match1.4
6Clean sheets9
8Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Hamburger SV at home with RB Leipzig away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Hamburger SV
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Merlin Polzin
- 1
D. Heuer FernandesG - 24
N. CapaldoD - 44
L. VuskovicD - 25
J. TorunarighaD - 2
W. MikelbrencisM - 20
F. VieiraM - 21
N. RembergM - 28
M. MuheimM - 11
R. KonigsdorfferF - 27
P. OteleF - 19
D. DownsF
Substitutes (9)
12 · S. Tangvik
17 · W. Omari
16 · G. Gocholeishvili
8 · D. Elfadli
6 · A. S. Lokonga
15 · Y. Poulsen
14 · R. Philippe
9 · R. Glatzel
7 · J. Dompe
RB Leipzig
Confirmed formation4-3-3Ole Werner
- 26
M. VandevoordtG - 17
R. BakuD - 4
W. OrbanD - 23
C. LukebaD - 22
D. RaumD - 10
B. GrudaM - 13
N. SeiwaldM - 14
C. BaumgartnerM - 49
Y. DiomandeF - 40
Romulo CardosoF - 7
A. NusaF
Substitutes (9)
25 · L. Zingerle
5 · E. Bitshiabu
16 · L. Klostermann
35 · M. Finkgrafe
39 · B. Henrichs
6 · E. Banzuzi
9 · J. Bakayoko
11 · C. Harder
27 · T. Gomis
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 63 | — |
| Nicolás Capaldo | 20 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Luka Vušković | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Jordan Torunarigha | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 46 | — |
| William Mikelbrencis | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 2 |
| Fábio Vieira | 87 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Nicolai Remberg | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 27 | 1 |
| Miro Muheim | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 20 | 4 |
| Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer | 67 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 15 | — |
| Philip Otele | 67 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 11 | 1 |
| Damion Downs | 67 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Warmed Omari | 70 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 39 | 1 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga | 23 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| Jean-Luc Dompé | 23 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Yussuf Poulsen | 23 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Rayan Philippe | 10 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Sander Tangvik | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Elfadli | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Glatzel | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
RB Leipzig
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maarten Vandevoordt | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 32 | — |
| Ridle Baku | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | 60 | 3 |
| Willi Orbán | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 84 | 2 |
| Castello Lukeba | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 70 | 1 |
| David Raum | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 60 | — |
| Brajan Gruda | 72 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 19 | — |
| Nicolas Seiwald | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 44 | 2 |
| Christoph Baumgartner | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 32 | — |
| Yan Diomande | 89 | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 41 | — |
| Rômulo | 89 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 3 |
| Antonio Nusa | 72 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 20 | — |
| Tidiam Gomis | 18 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi | 18 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 8 | — |
| Benjamin Henrichs | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Conrad Harder | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Leopold Zingerle | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Finkgräfe | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Klostermann | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Bakayoko | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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