Arouca
3/6Wins
1.7Goals / game
2.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 1 wins from 2 available matches.
Inspect Arouca’s results
Primeira LigaMatchweek 23THE MATCH CENTREArouca vs Nacional match centre
Full time
3:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
A. Trezza47′
H. Lee67′
D. Nandin72′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
AroucaNacional
1.920Expected goals · API-Football0.990
7Shots on target5
10Total Shots15
61%Ball Possession39%
4Corner Kicks1
12Fouls13
5Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
5Goalkeeper Saves4
444Total passes284
387Passes accurate215
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Arouca 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Nacional 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Nacional
2/6Wins
1.5Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect Nacional’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Arouca
6 matchesResults3 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game2.2
Games with 3+ goals5 of 6
Both teams scored3 of 6
Past results, not predictions.
Nacional
6 matchesResults2 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals4 of 6
Both teams scored3 of 6
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Arouca at home with Nacional away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 14:17 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primeira Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
AroucaNacional
22Matches played22
23Points earned21
6Wins5
1.3Goals scored / match1.3
2.3Goals conceded / match1.4
4Clean sheets4
7Failed to score6
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Arouca at home with Nacional away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Arouca
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Vasco Seabra
- 12
I. De ArruabarrenaG - 28
Tiago EsgaioD - 15
J. SanchezD - 3
J. FontanD - 25
B. KuipersD - 22
E. van EeM - 21
T. FukuiM - 19
A. TrezzaM - 14
H. LeeM - 7
N. DjouahraM - 17
I. BarberoF
Substitutes (9)
1 · J. Valido
2 · J. Silva
5 · B. Popovic
6 · D. Monteiro
10 · P. Gozalbez
11 · Puche
20 · J. Santiago Perez
23 · D. Nandin
24 · B. Mansilla
Nacional
Confirmed formation4-1-4-1Tiago Margarido
- 1
Kaique PereiraG - 16
A. NunezD - 34
Leo SantosD - 38
Ze VitorD - 24
L. VallierD - 6
Matheus DiasM - 27
Gabriel VeronM - 8
M. BaezaM - 15
C. LabidiM - 11
Paulinho BoiaM - 9
J. RamirezF
Substitutes (9)
50 · K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
7 · Witi
10 · Daniel Junior
18 · A. Sousa
19 · L. Joao
26 · J. Silva
33 · C. Goncalves
88 · Deivison
99 · Pablo Ruan
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Arouca
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio de Arruabarrena | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | 85 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 33 | — |
| Javi Sánchez | 90 | 8.2 | — | 0 | — | 76 | — |
| Jose Fontán | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 68 | — |
| Bas Kuipers | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 24 | — |
| Espen Van Ee | 85 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 59 | 1 |
| Taichi Fukui | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 55 | 1 |
| Alfonso Trezza | 89 | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 2 |
| Hyun-ju Lee | 83 | 6.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 30 | — |
| Naïs Djouahra | 65 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 17 | — |
| Ivan Barbero | 65 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 7 | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | 25 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | 12 | — |
| Dylan Nandín | 25 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | — |
| Diogo Monteiro | 9 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 4 | 1 |
| Yellu Santiago | 9 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Miguel Puche | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| João Valido | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Boris Popović | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Silva | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brian Mansilla | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nacional
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaique | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 44 | — |
| Alan Núñez | 90 | 5.6 | — | 0 | — | 18 | — |
| Léo Santos | 90 | 5.7 | — | 0 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Ze Vitor | 90 | 5.5 | — | 0 | — | 35 | — |
| Lenny Vallier | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 16 | — |
| Matheus Dias | 71 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 27 | — |
| Gabriel Veron | 78 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 |
| Miguel Baeza | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 9 | — |
| Chiheb Labidi | 51 | 5.5 | — | 0 | — | 17 | 1 |
| Paulinho Bóia | 79 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Jesús Ramírez | 71 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 3 | 11 | — |
| Deivison Souza Brito | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 6 | — |
| Joel Silva | 19 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Pablo | 19 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Witi | 12 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Daniel Júnior | 11 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Kevyn | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francisco Gonçalves | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Sousa | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas João | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2025/26 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Primeira Liga table
Current standings · Primeira Liga. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66 | 18 | 48 | 88 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 82 | WWWDD |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 80 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 59 | DDDLW |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 56 | WDDWD |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 50 | LLDWL |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 | DLWLW |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 42 | WWDLW |
| 9 |  Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 42 | LLLWW |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 39 | LDDLL |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 39 | LDLWL |
| 12 |  Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 36 | DLDLD |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 36 | LWDWD |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 34 | WLLWW |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 30 | DDLLL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 | DWLLL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 28 | LWWDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27 | 67 | -40 | 21 | DWWDD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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