Nacional
2/7Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 1 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect Nacional’s results
Primeira LigaMatchweek 24THE MATCH CENTRENacional vs SC Braga match centre
90′ · Live
1:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Paulinho Boia59′
R. Zalazar11′
R. Zalazar90+6′ (pen)
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%Nacional
Draw3.6%at full time
Current result estimate96.3%SC Braga
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Nacional 3.8% · no further goal 91.9% · SC Braga 4.3%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.NacionalSC Braga
0.960Expected goals · API-Football2.480
4Shots on target8
12Total Shots20
37%Ball Possession63%
2Corner Kicks6
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
6Goalkeeper Saves3
327Total passes566
249Passes accurate488
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primeira LigaProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | +48 | 88 | — |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | +65 | 82 | — |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | +49 | 80 | — |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 35 | +29 | 62 | — |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | +13 | 56 | — |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | +9 | 50 | — |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | -12 | 43 | — |
| 8 |  Guimaraes | 34 | -12 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 9 |  Arouca | 34 | -17 | 42 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | -3 | 39 | — |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | -17 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Santa Clara | 34 | -9 | 36 | ↑ 1 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 34 | -22 | 36 | ↓ 1 |
| 14 | Nacional | 35 | -9 | 34 | — |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | -18 | 30 | — |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | -26 | 30 | — |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | -28 | 28 | — |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | -40 | 21 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Nacional 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
SC Braga 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
SC Braga
7/10Wins
2.0Goals / game
0.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect SC Braga’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Nacional
7 matchesResults2 wins · 1 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals5 of 7
Both teams scored3 of 7
Past results, not predictions.
SC Braga
10 matchesResults7 wins · 1 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game0.5
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored2 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
GuimaraesHome · Primeira Liga3–2GIL VicenteAway · Primeira Liga1–2Rio AveHome · Primeira Liga3–0AVSAway · Primeira Liga4–0GO Ahead EaglesAway · UEFA Europa League0–0AlvercaHome · Primeira Liga5–0Nottingham ForestHome · UEFA Europa League1–0TondelaAway · Primeira Liga1–0EstorilAway · Primeira Liga0–1EstorilAway · Primeira Liga2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Nacional at home with SC Braga away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 14:17 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primeira Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
NacionalSC Braga
23Matches played23
21Points earned42
5Wins12
1.2Goals scored / match2.1
1.4Goals conceded / match1.0
4Clean sheets9
7Failed to score3
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Nacional at home with SC Braga away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Nacional
Confirmed formation4-3-3Tiago Margarido
- 1
Kaique PereiraG - 16
A. NunezD - 34
Leo SantosD - 33
C. GoncalvesD - 24
L. VallierD - 18
A. SousaM - 6
Matheus DiasM - 28
LizieroM - 27
Gabriel VeronF - 9
J. RamirezF - 11
Paulinho BoiaF
Substitutes (9)
50 · K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
7 · Witi
8 · M. Baeza
10 · Daniel Junior
19 · L. Joao
26 · J. Silva
30 · Watts
88 · Deivison
99 · Pablo Ruan
SC Braga
Confirmed formation3-4-3Carlos Vicens
- 1
L. HornicekG - 37
A. BarisicD - 14
G. LagerbielkeD - 26
B. Arrey-MbiD - 2
V. GomezM - 27
F. GrillitschM - 50
D. RodriguesM - 77
G. MartinezM - 10
R. ZalazarF - 18
P. VictorF - 21
R. HortaF
Substitutes (9)
12 · T. Sa
5 · L. Lelo
8 · J. Moutinho
15 · P. Oliveira
17 · Gabriel Moscardo
20 · M. Dorgeles
34 · D. E. Tiknaz
39 · F. Navarro
41 · Y. da Rocha
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Nacional
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaique | 90 | 8.9 | — | 0 | — | 46 | — |
| Alan Núñez | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 22 | — |
| Léo Santos | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 43 | — |
| Francisco Gonçalves | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 45 | 3 |
| Lenny Vallier | 89 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 25 | 1 |
| André Sousa | 74 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | 25 | 2 |
| Matheus Dias | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 39 | 2 |
| Liziero | 89 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 34 | 2 |
| Gabriel Veron | 74 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 12 | 1 |
| Jesús Ramírez | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Paulinho Bóia | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Joel Silva | 16 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Witi | 16 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Pablo | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lucas João | 1 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Kevyn | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Júnior | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deivison Souza Brito | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Baeza | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martim Gustavo Watts | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SC Braga
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukáš Horníček | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 24 | — |
| Adrian Leon Barišić | 45 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 36 | — |
| Gustaf Lagerbielke | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | — | 69 | 1 |
| Bright Arrey-Mbi | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 66 | 2 |
| Victor Gómez | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 3 | 46 | 5 |
| Florian Grillitsch | 67 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 42 | 1 |
| Diego Rodrigues | 84 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 74 | — |
| Gabriel Martínez | 67 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 3 | 20 | — |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | 90 | 8.9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 2 |
| Pau Víctor | 84 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Ricardo Horta | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 52 | — |
| Paulo Oliveira | 45 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 2 |
| João Moutinho | 23 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 31 | — |
| Mario Dorgeles | 23 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | — |
| Demir Ege Tıknaz | 19 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 9 | — |
| Fran Navarro | 19 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Tiago Sá | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Lelo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yanis da Rocha | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Moscardo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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