Newcastle
5/10Wins
2.3Goals / game
2.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Newcastle’s results
FA CupRound of 16THE MATCH CENTRENewcastle vs Manchester City match centre
90′ · Live
1:3
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
H. Barnes18′
Savinho39′
O. Marmoush47′
O. Marmoush65′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.0%Newcastle
Draw0.1%at full time
Current result estimate99.9%Manchester City
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Newcastle 3.7% · no further goal 91.9% · Manchester City 4.4%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.NewcastleManchester City
1.310Expected goals · API-Football2.910
4Shots on target8
11Total Shots21
38%Ball Possession62%
3Corner Kicks9
11Fouls14
2Yellow Cards0
—Red Cards—
5Goalkeeper Saves2
286Total passes478
211Passes accurate414
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
Round of 16Newcastle 1–3 Manchester City
→Current progressionManchester City
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Newcastle 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Manchester City 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Manchester City
8/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
0.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect Manchester City’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Newcastle
10 matchesResults5 wins · 0 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game2.3
Goals conceded per game2.1
Games with 3+ goals10 of 10
Both teams scored10 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Manchester UnitedHome · Premier League2–1EvertonHome · Premier League2–3QarabagHome · UEFA Champions League3–2Manchester CityAway · Premier League1–2QarabagAway · UEFA Champions League6–1Aston VillaAway · FA Cup3–1TottenhamAway · Premier League2–1BrentfordHome · Premier League2–3Manchester CityAway · League Cup1–3LiverpoolAway · Premier League1–4
Manchester City
10 matchesResults8 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game0.7
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Nottingham ForestHome · Premier League2–2LeedsAway · Premier League1–0NewcastleHome · Premier League2–1Salford CityHome · FA Cup2–0FulhamHome · Premier League3–0LiverpoolAway · Premier League2–1NewcastleHome · League Cup3–1TottenhamAway · Premier League2–2GalatasarayHome · UEFA Champions League2–0WolvesHome · Premier League2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Newcastle at home with Manchester City away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 04:24 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
FA Cup · 2025/26 · all league matches
NewcastleManchester City
2Matches played2
6Points earned6
2Wins2
3.5Goals scored / match6.0
2.0Goals conceded / match0.5
0Clean sheets1
0Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Newcastle at home with Manchester City away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Newcastle
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Eddie Howe
- 32
A. RamsdaleG - 2
K. TrippierD - 12
M. ThiawD - 4
S. BotmanD - 3
L. HallD - 8
S. TonaliM - 28
J. WillockM - 20
A. ElangaM - 27
N. WoltemadeM - 11
H. BarnesM - 18
W. OsulaF
Substitutes (9)
1 · N. Pope
33 · D. Burn
9 · Y. Wissa
10 · A. Gordon
23 · J. Murphy
7 · Joelinton
21 · V. Livramento
37 · A. Murphy
62 · S. Neave
Manchester City
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Pep Guardiola
- 1
J. TraffordG - 27
M. NunesD - 5
J. StonesD - 45
A. KhusanovD - 6
N. AkeD - 14
NicoM - 33
N. O'ReillyM - 26
SavinhoM - 4
T. ReijndersM - 11
J. DokuM - 7
O. MarmoushF
Substitutes (9)
25 · G. Donnarumma
3 · R. Dias
16 · Rodri
42 · A. Semenyo
21 · R. Ait-Nouri
20 · B. Silva
47 · P. Foden
15 · M. Guehi
10 · R. Cherki
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Newcastle
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ramsdale | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 45 | — |
| Kieran Trippier | 63 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 18 | 2 |
| Malick Thiaw | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 34 | — |
| Sven Botman | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 46 | — |
| Lewis Hall | 80 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 33 | 3 |
| Sandro Tonali | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 32 | 2 |
| Joe Willock | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 |
| Anthony Elanga | 62 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 15 | — |
| Nick Woltemade | 72 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 |
| Harvey Barnes | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| William Osula | 63 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Joelinton | 28 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 12 | — |
| Dan Burn | 27 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 12 | — |
| Yoane Wissa | 27 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Anthony Gordon | 18 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Valentino Livramento | 10 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 5 | 1 |
| Nick Pope | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Murphy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Neave | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Murphy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Manchester City
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Trafford | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| Matheus Nunes | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | 44 | 1 |
| John Stones | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 71 | 1 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 62 | 1 |
| Nathan Aké | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 46 | — |
| Nico González | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | — | 90 | 2 |
| Nico O'Reilly | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Savinho | 79 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Jérémy Doku | 79 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | 31 | — |
| Omar Marmoush | 73 | 8.9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 |
| Antoine Semenyo | 17 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 7 | — |
| Phil Foden | 11 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 9 | — |
| Rayan Cherki | 11 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rúben Dias | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Guéhi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodri | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2025/26 STANDINGS
League centre ↗FA Cup table
Current standings. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
Standings are not available for this competition and season.
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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