Puebla
4/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
2.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Puebla’s results
Liga MXApertura - 7THE MATCH CENTREPuebla vs Toluca match centre
Full time
0:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
José Pachuca69′ (og)
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Out of date · Calculated 15 Sep 21:13 UK.
Odds updated 16 Sep 01:36 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
PueblaToluca
—Expected goals · API-Football—
2Shots on target3
13Total Shots11
44%Ball Possession56%
6Corner Kicks5
7Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
328Total passes434
260Passes accurate374
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Puebla 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Toluca 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Toluca
8/10Wins
2.3Goals / game
0.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Toluca’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Puebla
10 matchesResults4 wins · 1 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game2.0
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Toluca
10 matchesResults8 wins · 1 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.3
Goals conceded per game0.5
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Puebla at home with Toluca away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 14:10 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Liga MX · 2026/27 · all league matches
PueblaToluca
9Matches played9
14Points earned19
4Wins6
1.2Goals scored / match2.2
1.2Goals conceded / match1.0
2Clean sheets4
2Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Puebla at home with Toluca away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Puebla
0wins4MEETINGS
Toluca
3winsOct 2024 – Jan 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with Puebla first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Puebla
Confirmed formation4-1-4-1Gerardo Espinoza
- 28
R. GutiérrezG - 20
J. PachucaD - 5
F. AlmadaD - 4
J. VargasD - 7
F. MonárrezD - 21
S. SanabriaM - 27
B. GarnicaM - 10
M. TomásM - 24
A. OrganistaM - 22
C. BaltazarM - 19
I. Maestro PuchF
Substitutes (10)
33 · J. Rodríguez
2 · Á. Leyva
15 · Ó. Villa
12 · I. Moreno
8 · O. Moreno
16 · A. Ramírez
25 · H. Jurado
14 · E. Armenta
3 · A. Herrera
34 · Lucas Camilo
Toluca
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1A. Mohamed
- 22
L. GarcíaG - 2
D. BarbosaD - 4
B. MéndezD - 6
F. PereiraD - 25
E. LópezD - 5
F. RomeroM - 8
N. CastroM - 16
F. ViñasM - 10
J. AnguloM - 20
J. GallardoM - 26
PaulinhoF
Substitutes (10)
23 · O. Virgen
7 · V. Guzmán
15 · P. Pérez
11 · Helinho
3 · A. Briseño
184 · S. Aceves
24 · F. Arce
12 · R. Beltrán
29 · J. Díaz
13 · Luan
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Toluca
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Barbosa | 90 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 5 |
| B. Méndez | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 0 |
| F. Pereira | 90 | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 63 | 3 |
| E. López | 59 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 3 |
| F. Romero | 45 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 |
| J. Gallardo | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3 |
| F. Viñas | 77 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| J. Angulo | 59 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 |
| N. Castro | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 58 | 3 |
| Paulinho | 96 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 3 |
| L. García | 90 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| S. Aceves | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Briseño | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Helinho | 31 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| P. Pérez | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| V. Guzmán | 45 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| F. Arce | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| O. Virgen | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| R. Beltrán | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Díaz | 31 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Luan | 13 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Puebla
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rodríguez | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Pachuca | 89 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 |
| F. Almada | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 3 |
| J. Vargas | 90 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 1 |
| F. Monárrez | 89 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 1 |
| S. Sanabria | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 2 |
| B. Garnica | 75 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 |
| M. Tomás | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| A. Organista | 89 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 2 |
| C. Baltazar | 72 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 |
| I. Maestro Puch | 90 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| R. Gutiérrez | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 |
| Á. Leyva | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ó. Villa | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| I. Moreno | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| O. Moreno | 15 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| A. Ramírez | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| H. Jurado | 18 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| E. Armenta | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Herrera | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Lucas Camilo | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Liga MX table
Current standings · Liga MX: Apertura. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 18 | DWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 17 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 15 | LWWWL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 | DWWLD |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 | DLWLW |
| 7 |  Leon | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Puebla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 | DLWLW |
| 9 |  Atlas | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 | DLDLW |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 13 | WDLLW |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 | DLWLD |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 | WLLWD |
| 14 |  Atlante FC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 | DLDDL |
| 15 |  Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 | LLDLD |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | LDDDW |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 | WWLDL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 | WLLLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Puebla | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Marathonbet | 5.60 | 4.40 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.47 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.33 | 1.50 |
Snapshot from 16 Sep 2026, 01:36 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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