M. BirdInactive
Reported out
ChampionshipMatchweek 8THE MATCH CENTREBirmingham vs Middlesbrough match centre
Full time
2:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Liam Millar55′
Riley McGree59′ (og)
Max Arfsten45′
A.Malanda88′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Out of date · Calculated 19 Sep 10:04 UK.
Odds updated 19 Sep 11:11 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 6 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
BirminghamMiddlesbrough
1.230Expected goals · API-Football2.140
5Shots on target4
16Total Shots14
57%Ball Possession43%
5Corner Kicks3
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
3Goalkeeper Saves4
350Total passes384
263Passes accurate309
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Birmingham 6 reported
T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
Reported out
M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
Reported out
S. WrightOff the roster
Reported out
D. GrayInjury
Doubtful
P. RobertsHealth problems
Doubtful
Middlesbrough 1 reported
A. JonesInactive
Reported outFetched 18 Sep, 21:34 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Birmingham
3/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Birmingham’s resultsMiddlesbrough
6/10Wins
1.8Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Middlesbrough’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Birmingham
10 matchesResults3 wins · 5 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
DerbyAway · Championship2–1NorwichAway · Championship1–2WolvesHome · Championship2–2SouthamptonHome · Championship1–1WrexhamAway · Championship2–1BrentfordHome · League Cup1–6Bristol CityHome · Championship2–2Sheffield UtdAway · Championship0–0SwanseaAway · League Cup1–0BarcelonaHome · Friendlies Clubs2–2
Middlesbrough
10 matchesResults6 wins · 2 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.8
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Birmingham at home with Middlesbrough away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 05:16 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Championship · 2026/27 · all league matches
BirminghamMiddlesbrough
7Matches played6
10Points earned13
2Wins4
1.5Goals scored / match2.0
1.3Goals conceded / match1.4
1Clean sheets1
1Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Birmingham at home with Middlesbrough away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Birmingham
0wins4MEETINGS
Middlesbrough
4winsOct 2023 – Mar 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with Birmingham first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Birmingham
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1C. Davies
- 1
J. BeadleG - 26
B. Osayi-SamuelD - 5
P. NeumannD - 4
C. KlarerD - 20
A. CochraneD - 24
T. IwataM - 14
J. SolisM - 7
Carlos VicenteM - 28
J. StansfieldM - 17
L. MillarM - 32
L. VázquezF
Substitutes (9)
21 · R. Allsop
3 · L. Buchanan
33 · M. Ducksch
23 · D. Fry
2 · E. Laird
25 · K. Lund
40 · M. Mazwi
8 · Paik Seung-Ho
16 · P. Roberts
Middlesbrough
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1K. Hellberg
- 1
R. VítekG - 12
L. AylingD - 4
A. PhillipsD - 29
A. MalandaD - 2
C. BrittainM - 10
A. MorrisM - 8
R. McGreeM - 17
M. ArfstenM - 11
A. Cozier-DuberryM - 14
M. Peart-HarrisM - 7
W. LankshearF
Substitutes (9)
22 · K. Joseph
30 · Neto Borges
21 · R. Pukštas
16 · J. Sarmiento
13 · D. Strelec
9 · T. Conway
3 · S. Byram
31 · S. Brynn
6 · S. Berhalter
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Middlesbrough
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Phillips | 86 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 5 |
| M. Arfsten | 86 | 7.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 3 |
| L. Ayling | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 3 |
| C. Brittain | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 3 |
| A. Cozier-Duberry | 74 | 7.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 2 |
| W. Lankshear | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| A. Malanda | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 2 |
| R. McGree | 63 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| A. Morris | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 54 | 6 |
| M. Peart-Harris | 63 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| R. Vítek | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| S. Berhalter | 27 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 |
| S. Brynn | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| S. Byram | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T. Conway | 27 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| K. Joseph | 4 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Neto Borges | 4 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| R. Pukštas | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Sarmiento | 16 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| D. Strelec | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Birmingham
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vicente | 89 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 3 |
| A. Cochrane | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 1 |
| T. Iwata | 90 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| C. Klarer | 90 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 2 |
| L. Millar | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| P. Neumann | 90 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 2 |
| B. Osayi-Samuel | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| J. Solis | 90 | 7.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 2 |
| J. Stansfield | 83 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| L. Vázquez | 71 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| J. Beadle | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 |
| R. Allsop | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| L. Buchanan | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Ducksch | 19 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| D. Fry | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| E. Laird | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K. Lund | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Mazwi | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paik Seung-Ho | 7 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| P. Roberts | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Championship table
Current standings · Championship. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 17 | WWLDW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 15 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 | DDWWD |
| 4 |  Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 14 | LDWWD |
| 6 |  QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | DDDLW |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | WWDWW |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 | WLLWW |
| 9 |  Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 11 | DWLDD |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 | DDLWL |
| 12 |  Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 | LWWDD |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 10 | LWWDD |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 | WLDDW |
| 15 |  Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 | WWLLL |
| 16 |  Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | DWLLD |
| 17 |  Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 | LLWWL |
| 18 |  Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | LLWLW |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DDWLL |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 | LLWLL |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | WLDLL |
| 22 |  Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 23 |  Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 | DLLWL |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 | DLDLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Birmingham | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.46 | 2.42 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.77 | 3.64 | 2.51 |
Snapshot from 19 Sep 2026, 11:11 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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