E. AgyeiInjury
Reported out
ChampionshipMatchweek 8THE MATCH CENTREBurnley vs Derby match centre
Full time
1:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Zeki Amdouni34′
Mohammed Fuseini90+3′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Out of date · Calculated 19 Sep 09:38 UK.
Odds updated 19 Sep 11:11 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 6 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
BurnleyDerby
—Expected goals · API-Football—
2Shots on target6
6Total Shots13
47%Ball Possession53%
4Corner Kicks5
9Fouls12
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Goalkeeper Saves1
429Total passes377
343Passes accurate307
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Burnley 9 reported
J. BanelInjury
Reported out
A. BarnesInjury
Reported out
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
Reported outJ. Bruun LarsenInjury
Reported out
J. CullenKnee Injury
Reported out
B. HumphreysInactive
Reported out
D. SatpaevHamstring Injury
Reported out
H. MejbriInactive
Doubtful
Derby 7 reported
P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
Reported out
F. BilbijaInactive
Reported out
R. BrewsterInjury
Reported out
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
Reported out
C. ForsythKnee Injury
Reported out
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
Reported out
L. TravisLeg Injury
Reported outFetched 18 Sep, 21:26 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Burnley
0/10Wins
0.9Goals / game
1.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Burnley’s resultsDerby
1/10Wins
0.8Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 7 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Derby’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Burnley
10 matchesResults0 wins · 5 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game0.9
Goals conceded per game1.8
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
SwanseaAway · Championship1–3WrexhamAway · Championship1–1Bristol CityHome · Championship1–2MiddlesbroughHome · Championship1–1NorwichAway · Championship1–4BradfordAway · League Cup0–0West BromAway · Championship1–3West HamHome · Championship2–2Notts CountyHome · League Cup1–1TorinoHome · Friendlies Clubs0–1
Derby
10 matchesResults1 wins · 2 draws · 7 losses
Goals scored per game0.8
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
BirminghamHome · Championship1–2West BromHome · Championship0–1West HamAway · Championship0–3PortsmouthAway · Championship2–0SwanseaHome · Championship0–3CardiffHome · Championship2–2CharltonAway · Championship1–2LincolnHome · League Cup1–2RotherhamAway · Friendlies Clubs1–1Burton AlbionAway · Friendlies Clubs0–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Burnley at home with Derby away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 07:41 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Championship · 2026/27 · all league matches
BurnleyDerby
7Matches played7
3Points earned4
0Wins1
1.1Goals scored / match0.9
2.3Goals conceded / match1.9
0Clean sheets1
0Failed to score3
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Burnley at home with Derby away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Burnley
2wins4MEETINGS
Derby
0winsJan 2016 – Aug 2025 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with Burnley first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Burnley
Confirmed formation4-4-2N. Hayen
- 37
G. CoudertG - 14
C. RobertsD - 15
A. AhmedhodžićD - 44
IgorD - 23
Lucas PiresD - 10
M. EdwardsM - 29
J. LaurentM - 3
Max AlleyneM - 5
R. HatateM - 7
J. Bruun LarsenF - 11
Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes (9)
9 · J. Vardy
2 · K. Walker
27 · A. Broja
18 · H. Ekdal
17 · A. Hountondji
8 · U. Raghouber
19 · L. Ramazani
22 · O. Sonne
1 · M. Weiß
Derby
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1J. Eustace
- 31
J. VickersG - 23
J. WardD - 6
S. LangåsD - 28
D. SandersonD - 18
C. TaylorD - 20
A. MowattM - 4
D. OzohM - 26
R. HedgesM - 11
S. SzmodicsM - 8
B. ClarkM - 9
C. MorrisF
Substitutes (9)
10 · R. Brewster
29 · O. Fraulo
16 · M. Fuseini
22 · M. Johnston
12 · R. O'Donnell
15 · L. Salvesen
27 · L. Travis
33 · C. Blackett-Taylor
42 · Raymond Offor
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Burnley
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ahmedhodžić | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 1 |
| G. Coudert | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 1 |
| M. Weiß | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K. Walker | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Vardy | 17 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| O. Sonne | 1 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| L. Ramazani | 29 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| U. Raghouber | 29 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| A. Hountondji | 17 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| H. Ekdal | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Broja | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucas Pires | 89 | 7.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 2 |
| J. Laurent | 90 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 1 |
| Igor | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0 |
| R. Hatate | 61 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 |
| M. Edwards | 61 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| J. Bruun Larsen | 73 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| Z. Amdouni | 73 | 7.8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Max Alleyne | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 |
| C. Roberts | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 1 |
Derby
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ward | 90 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 4 |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | 8 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| R. Brewster | 12 | 6.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| O. Fraulo | 24 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| M. Fuseini | 24 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| M. Johnston | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| R. O'Donnell | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| L. Salvesen | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| L. Travis | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| C. Taylor | 82 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
| S. Szmodics | 90 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| D. Sanderson | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 0 |
| D. Ozoh | 78 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 3 |
| A. Mowatt | 66 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 5 |
| C. Morris | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| S. Langås | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 60 | 2 |
| R. Hedges | 66 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 3 |
| B. Clark | 90 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 4 |
| J. Vickers | 90 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0 |
| Raymond Offor | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Championship table
Current standings · Championship. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 17 | WWLDW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 15 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 | DDWWD |
| 4 |  Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 14 | LDWWD |
| 6 |  QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | DDDLW |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | WWDWW |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 | WLLWW |
| 9 |  Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 11 | DWLDD |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 | DDLWL |
| 12 |  Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 | LWWDD |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 10 | LWWDD |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 | WLDDW |
| 15 |  Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 | WWLLL |
| 16 |  Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | DWLLD |
| 17 |  Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 | LLWWL |
| 18 |  Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | LLWLW |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DDWLL |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 | LLWLL |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | WLDLL |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 23 |  Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 | DLLWL |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 | DLDLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Burnley | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.62 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.77 | 4.26 |
Snapshot from 19 Sep 2026, 11:11 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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