Estonia
1/9Wins
0.6Goals / game
1.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Estonia’s results
World Cup - Qualification EuropeGroup Stage - 7THE MATCH CENTREEstonia vs Italy match centre
Full time
1:3
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
R. Sappinen76′
M. Kean4′
M. Retegui38′
F. Esposito74′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
EstoniaItaly
0.770Expected goals · API-Football2.650
1Shots on target9
2Total Shots24
36%Ball Possession64%
0Corner Kicks8
22Fouls9
4Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
6Goalkeeper Saves0
325Total passes579
247Passes accurate507
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Estonia 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Italy 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Italy
5/9Wins
2.4Goals / game
1.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Italy’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Estonia
9 matchesResults1 wins · 2 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game0.6
Goals conceded per game1.9
Games with 3+ goals5 of 9
Both teams scored3 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
AndorraHome · Friendlies0–0ItalyAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–5NorwayHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–1IsraelHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–3MoldovaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–2IsraelAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–2SlovakiaAway · UEFA Nations League0–1AzerbaijanAway · UEFA Nations League0–0SwedenHome · UEFA Nations League0–3
Italy
9 matchesResults5 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game2.4
Goals conceded per game1.8
Games with 3+ goals7 of 9
Both teams scored5 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
IsraelAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe5–4EstoniaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe5–0MoldovaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0NorwayAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–3GermanyAway · UEFA Nations League3–3GermanyHome · UEFA Nations League1–2FranceHome · UEFA Nations League1–3BelgiumAway · UEFA Nations League1–0IsraelHome · UEFA Nations League4–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Estonia at home with Italy away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:48 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
World Cup - Qualification Europe · 2024/25 · all league matches
EstoniaItaly
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Estonia at home with Italy away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Estonia
Confirmed formationPending
- 1
K. HeinG - 6
R. PeetsonD - 13
M. PaskotsiD - 2
M. KuuskD - 3
J. SalisteD - 10
K. PalumetsM - 8
M. SoometsM - 4
M. KaitM - 5
R. R. SheinM - 7
R. SaarmaM - 21
A. TammF
Substitutes (12)
12 · M. Igonen
22 · H. Perk
9 · I. Yakovlev
11 · K. Mustmaa
14 · P. Kristal
15 · R. Sappinen
16 · J. Tamm
17 · M. Miller
18 · K. Mets
19 · M. Schjonning-Larsen
20 · M. Vetkal
23 · V. Sinyavskiy
Italy
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Ivan Gennaro Gattuso
- 1
G. DonnarummaG - 22
G. Di LorenzoD - 21
A. BastoniD - 13
R. CalafioriD - 7
R. OrsoliniM - 18
N. BarellaM - 8
S. TonaliM - 3
F. DimarcoM - 11
M. KeanF - 10
G. RaspadoriF - 9
M. ReteguiF
Substitutes (12)
12 · M. Carnesecchi
14 · G. Vicario
2 · M. Gabbia
4 · L. Spinazzola
5 · M. Locatelli
6 · D. Udogie
15 · F. Esposito
16 · B. Cristante
17 · D. Frattesi
19 · N. Cambiaghi
20 · A. Cambiaso
23 · G. Mancini
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Estonia
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Hein | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 43 | — |
| Rasmus Peetson | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 32 | 3 |
| Maksim Paskotsi | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 49 | 2 |
| Märten Kuusk | 62 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 23 | — |
| Joseph Saliste | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 8 | 3 |
| Kevor Palumets | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 7 | 1 |
| Markus Soomets | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 26 | — |
| Mattias Käit | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 27 | 1 |
| Rocco Robert Shein | 83 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 17 | — |
| Robi Saarma | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 2 |
| Alex Matthias Tamm | 62 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 14 | — |
| Vlasiy Sinyavskiy | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 21 | — |
| Karol Mets | 28 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 34 | — |
| Rauno Sappinen | 28 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Karel Mustmaa | 8 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Matvei Igonen | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Henri Perk | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joonas Tamm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ioan Yakovlev | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Patrik Kristal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Miller | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Vetkal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Italy
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 52 | 3 |
| Alessandro Bastoni | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 73 | 1 |
| Riccardo Calafiori | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 86 | 1 |
| Riccardo Orsolini | 62 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 22 | — |
| Nicolò Barella | 78 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 83 | 2 |
| Sandro Tonali | 90 | 8.2 | — | 0 | — | 84 | 1 |
| Federico Dimarco | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 58 | 1 |
| Moise Kean | 15 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | 62 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 2 | 25 | — |
| Mateo Retegui | 78 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | — |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | 75 | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | — |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | 28 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Andrea Cambiaso | 28 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 6 | — |
| Bryan Cristante | 12 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 14 | 2 |
| Davide Frattesi | 12 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Marco Carnesecchi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guglielmo Vicario | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Gabbia | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Destiny Udogie | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gianluca Mancini | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manuel Locatelli | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2024/25 STANDINGS
League centre ↗World Cup - Qualification Europe table
Current standings · Group I. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
Norway
Israel
MoldovaTHE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
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