FSV Mainz 05
5/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 8 available matches.
Inspect FSV Mainz 05’s results
BundesligaMatchweek 29THE MATCH CENTREFSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg match centre
90′ · Live
0:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
L. Holer47′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%FSV Mainz 05
Draw4.2%at full time
Current result estimate95.7%SC Freiburg
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: FSV Mainz 05 4.4% · no further goal 91.9% · SC Freiburg 3.7%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.FSV Mainz 05SC Freiburg
0.630Expected goals · API-Football0.570
3Shots on target3
10Total Shots8
51%Ball Possession49%
6Corner Kicks4
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves3
328Total passes336
248Passes accurate268
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Bundesliga Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | +86 | 89 | — |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | +36 | 73 | — |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 34 | +19 | 65 | — |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | +22 | 62 | — |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | +13 | 61 | — |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | +21 | 59 | — |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 35 | -5 | 50 | — |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | -4 | 44 | — |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | -16 | 43 | — |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 35 | -10 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | -14 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | -11 | 38 | — |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | -14 | 38 | — |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | -14 | 32 | — |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | -23 | 32 | — |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | -24 | 29 | — |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
FSV Mainz 05 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
SC Freiburg 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
SC Freiburg
4/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
1.6Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 8 available matches.
Inspect SC Freiburg’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
FSV Mainz 05
10 matchesResults5 wins · 4 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
StrasbourgHome · UEFA Europa Conference League2–01899 HoffenheimAway · Bundesliga2–1Eintracht FrankfurtHome · Bundesliga2–1Sigma OlomoucHome · UEFA Europa Conference League2–0Werder BremenAway · Bundesliga2–0Sigma OlomoucAway · UEFA Europa Conference League0–0VfB StuttgartHome · Bundesliga2–2Bayer LeverkusenAway · Bundesliga1–1Hamburger SVHome · Bundesliga1–1Borussia DortmundAway · Bundesliga0–4
SC Freiburg
10 matchesResults4 wins · 1 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game1.6
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Celta VigoHome · UEFA Europa League3–0Bayern MünchenHome · Bundesliga2–3FC St. PauliAway · Bundesliga2–1GenkHome · UEFA Europa League5–1Union BerlinHome · Bundesliga0–1GenkAway · UEFA Europa League0–1Bayer LeverkusenHome · Bundesliga3–3Eintracht FrankfurtAway · Bundesliga0–2Borussia MönchengladbachHome · Bundesliga2–11899 HoffenheimAway · Bundesliga0–3
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare FSV Mainz 05 at home with SC Freiburg away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:51 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Bundesliga · 2025/26 · all league matches
FSV Mainz 05SC Freiburg
28Matches played28
33Points earned37
8Wins10
1.3Goals scored / match1.5
1.6Goals conceded / match1.7
3Clean sheets5
9Failed to score8
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares FSV Mainz 05 at home with SC Freiburg away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed formation5-3-2Urs Fischer
- 33
D. BatzG - 22
N. VeratschnigD - 21
D. da CostaD - 4
S. PoschD - 31
D. KohrD - 2
P. MweneD - 24
S. KawasakiM - 6
K. SanoM - 8
P. NebelM - 20
P. TietzF - 23
S. BeckerF
Substitutes (9)
1 · L. Riess
30 · S. Widmer
10 · N. Amiri
19 · A. Caci
15 · L. Maloney
11 · A. Sieb
14 · W. Boving
44 · N. Weiper
48 · K. Potulski
SC Freiburg
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Julian Schuster
- 1
N. AtuboluG - 17
L. KublerD - 28
M. GinterD - 43
B. OgbusD - 30
C. GunterD - 8
M. EggesteinM - 44
J. ManzambiM - 22
C. IrieM - 9
L. HolerM - 7
D. ScherhantM - 31
I. MatanovicF
Substitutes (9)
21 · F. Muller
27 · N. Hofler
32 · V. Grifo
26 · M. Philipp
14 · Y. Suzuki
33 · J. Makengo
3 · P. Lienhart
19 · J. Beste
29 · P. Treu
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Batz | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 36 | — |
| Danny da Costa | 83 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 33 | 4 |
| Stefan Posch | 90 | 8.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 51 | 7 |
| Dominik Kohr | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 40 | 2 |
| Kaishu Sano | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 39 | — |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | 62 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 |
| Sota Kawasaki | 62 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 17 | 1 |
| Paul Nebel | 74 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 15 | 1 |
| Phillipp Mwene | 74 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 13 | — |
| Phillip Tietz | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 20 | 1 |
| Sheraldo Becker | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 2 | 15 | — |
| Nadiem Amiri | 28 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 17 | 1 |
| Silvan Widmer | 28 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 7 | — |
| Anthony Caci | 16 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 15 | 2 |
| Armindo Sieb | 16 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 7 | — |
| Nelson Weiper | 15 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Lasse Riess | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lennard Maloney | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kacper Potulski | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Bøving | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SC Freiburg
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Atubolu | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 34 | — |
| Lukas Kübler | 64 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 17 | — |
| Matthias Ginter | 83 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | 48 | — |
| Bruno Ogbus | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 26 | — |
| Christian Günter | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 26 | 1 |
| Maximilian Eggestein | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 44 | — |
| Johan Manzambi | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 45 | 2 |
| Cyriaque Irié | 64 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 20 | 2 |
| Lucas Höler | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Derry Scherhant | 74 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 4 | 1 |
| Igor Matanović | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 |
| Philipp Lienhart | 45 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 21 | — |
| Philipp Treu | 26 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | 26 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 6 | 1 |
| Vincenzo Grifo | 16 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Jordy Makengo | 15 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 6 | 1 |
| Maximilian Philipp | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florian Müller | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Hofler | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuito Suzuki | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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