Famalicao
6/9Wins
1.3Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Famalicao’s results
Primeira LigaMatchweek 27THE MATCH CENTREFamalicao vs Nacional match centre
90′ · Live
1:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
I. Ba63′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate95.7%Famalicao
Draw4.2%at full time
Current result estimate0.1%Nacional
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Famalicao 3.8% · no further goal 91.9% · Nacional 4.4%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.FamalicaoNacional
1.740Expected goals · API-Football0.430
4Shots on target6
14Total Shots8
55%Ball Possession45%
6Corner Kicks6
8Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
6Goalkeeper Saves3
421Total passes340
357Passes accurate286
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primeira LigaProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | +48 | 88 | — |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | +65 | 82 | — |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | +49 | 80 | — |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | +28 | 59 | — |
| 5 | Famalicao | 35 | +14 | 59 | — |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | +9 | 50 | — |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | -12 | 43 | — |
| 8 |  Guimaraes | 34 | -12 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 9 |  Arouca | 34 | -17 | 42 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | -3 | 39 | — |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | -17 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Santa Clara | 34 | -9 | 36 | ↑ 1 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 34 | -22 | 36 | ↓ 1 |
| 14 |  Nacional | 35 | -9 | 34 | — |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | -18 | 30 | — |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | -26 | 30 | — |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | -28 | 28 | — |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | -40 | 21 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Famalicao 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Nacional 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Nacional
2/10Wins
1.1Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Nacional’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Famalicao
9 matchesResults6 wins · 1 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals4 of 9
Both teams scored2 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
Nacional
10 matchesResults2 wins · 2 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game1.1
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
EstorilHome · Primeira Liga0–1MoreirenseAway · Primeira Liga1–1SC BragaHome · Primeira Liga1–2AroucaAway · Primeira Liga0–3FC PortoHome · Primeira Liga0–1Casa PiaHome · Primeira Liga0–0Sporting CPAway · Primeira Liga1–2Rio AveHome · Primeira Liga4–0GIL VicenteAway · Primeira Liga1–2RebordeloAway · Taça de Portugal3–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Famalicao at home with Nacional away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 09:51 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primeira Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
FamalicaoNacional
26Matches played26
42Points earned22
12Wins5
1.3Goals scored / match1.1
0.9Goals conceded / match1.5
13Clean sheets4
8Failed to score8
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Famalicao at home with Nacional away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Famalicao
Confirmed formation4-3-3Hugo Oliveira
- 25
L. CarevicG - 17
R. PinheiroD - 55
I. BaD - 16
J. De HaasD - 5
Rafa SoaresD - 20
G. SaM - 6
T. Van de LooiM - 14
M. De AmorimM - 23
Gil DiasF - 12
S. ElisorF - 7
SorrisoF
Substitutes (9)
1 · I. Zlobin
28 · Pedro Bondo
80 · P. Santos
77 · A. Joujou
8 · M. Pena
3 · L. Realpe
2 · Garcia
18 · R. Beney
9 · U. Abubakar
Nacional
Confirmed formation4-3-3Tiago Margarido
- 1
Kaique PereiraG - 16
A. NunezD - 34
Leo SantosD - 38
Ze VitorD - 24
L. VallierD - 8
M. BaezaM - 6
Matheus DiasM - 15
C. LabidiM - 10
Daniel JuniorF - 19
L. JoaoF - 11
Paulinho BoiaF
Substitutes (8)
50 · K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
7 · Witi
22 · F. Soares
26 · J. Silva
88 · Deivison
18 · A. Sousa
99 · Pablo Ruan
33 · C. Goncalves
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Famalicao
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Carević | 90 | 9.2 | — | 0 | — | 21 | — |
| Rodrigo Pinheiro | 90 | 7.7 | — | 0 | — | 43 | 5 |
| Ibrahima Ba | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 79 | 3 |
| Justin De Haas | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 83 | 1 |
| Rafa Soares | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 47 | 1 |
| Gustavo Sá | 89 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Tom Van De Looi | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| Mathias De Amorim | 79 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Gil Dias | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 |
| Simon Elisor | 79 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Sorriso | 87 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 14 | 1 |
| Marcos Peña | 11 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Umar Abubakar | 11 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 4 | 1 |
| Antoine Joujou | 9 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Léo Realpe | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Ivan Zlobin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Bondo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Romeo Beney | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nacional
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaique | 90 | 7.7 | — | 0 | — | 27 | — |
| Alan Núñez | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 40 | 5 |
| Léo Santos | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 55 | 3 |
| Ze Vitor | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 50 | 4 |
| Lenny Vallier | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 25 | 1 |
| Miguel Baeza | 77 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 1 |
| Matheus Dias | 77 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| Chiheb Labidi | 77 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Daniel Júnior | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 30 | 1 |
| Lucas João | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 19 | 2 |
| Paulinho Bóia | 84 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Filipe Soares | 13 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 11 | — |
| Witi | 13 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 2 | 1 |
| Joel Silva | 13 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Pablo | 12 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Kevyn | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francisco Gonçalves | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deivison Souza Brito | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Sousa | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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