Atalanta
5/10Wins
1.8Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Atalanta’s results
UEFA Champions LeagueRound of 16THE MATCH CENTREAtalanta vs Bayern München match centre
90′ · Live
1:6
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
M. Pasalic90+3′
J. Stanisic12′
M. Olise22′
S. Gnabry25′
N. Jackson52′
M. Olise64′
J. Musiala67′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.0%Atalanta
Draw0.0%at full time
Current result estimate100.0%Bayern München
Another goal8.0%before full time
Next goal: Atalanta 3.1% · no further goal 92.0% · Bayern München 4.9%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.AtalantaBayern München
1.680Expected goals · API-Football4.580
1Shots on target13
9Total Shots25
31%Ball Possession69%
2Corner Kicks7
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
6Goalkeeper Saves1
288Total passes685
224Passes accurate628
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
UEFA Champions LeagueProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 9 | +19 | 24 | ↑ 1 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | +19 | 24 | ↓ 1 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | +12 | 18 | — |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | +10 | 17 | — |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 8 | +8 | 16 | — |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 8 | +7 | 16 | — |
| 7 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 8 |  Manchester City | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 9 |  Real Madrid | 8 | +9 | 15 | — |
| 10 |  Inter | 8 | +8 | 15 | — |
| 11 |  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 13 |  Juventus | 8 | +4 | 13 | — |
| 14 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | +2 | 13 | — |
| 15 | Atalanta | 9 | -5 | 13 | — |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | -1 | 12 | — |
| 17 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | +2 | 11 | — |
| 18 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | -4 | 11 | — |
| 19 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 20 |  Galatasaray | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 21 |  Monaco | 8 | -6 | 10 | — |
| 22 |  Qarabag | 8 | -8 | 10 | — |
| 23 |  Bodo/Glimt | 8 | -1 | 9 | — |
| 24 |  Benfica | 8 | -2 | 9 | — |
| 25 |  Marseille | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 26 |  Pafos | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 27 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | -9 | 9 | — |
| 28 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 0 | 8 | — |
| 29 |  Athletic Club | 8 | -5 | 8 | — |
| 30 |  Napoli | 8 | -6 | 8 | — |
| 31 |  FC Copenhagen | 8 | -9 | 8 | — |
| 32 |  Ajax | 8 | -13 | 6 | — |
| 33 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | -11 | 4 | — |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | -14 | 3 | — |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | -13 | 1 | — |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | -15 | 1 | — |
Round of 16Atalanta 1–6 Bayern München
→Current progressionBayern München
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Atalanta 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Bayern München 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Bayern München
8/10Wins
2.7Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 5 wins from 8 available matches.
Inspect Bayern München’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Atalanta
10 matchesResults5 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.8
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Bayern München
10 matchesResults8 wins · 1 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.7
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Borussia MönchengladbachHome · Bundesliga4–1Borussia DortmundAway · Bundesliga3–2Eintracht FrankfurtHome · Bundesliga3–2Werder BremenAway · Bundesliga3–0RB LeipzigHome · DFB Pokal2–01899 HoffenheimHome · Bundesliga5–1Hamburger SVAway · Bundesliga2–2PSV EindhovenAway · UEFA Champions League2–1FC AugsburgHome · Bundesliga1–2Union St. GilloiseHome · UEFA Champions League2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Atalanta at home with Bayern München away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:08 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Champions League · 2025/26 · all league matches
AtalantaBayern München
10Matches played8
16Points earned21
5Wins7
1.4Goals scored / match2.8
1.3Goals conceded / match1.0
3Clean sheets2
4Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Atalanta at home with Bayern München away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Atalanta
Confirmed formation4-4-2Raffaele Palladino
- 29
M. CarnesecchiG - 77
D. ZappacostaD - 4
I. HienD - 23
S. KolasinacD - 47
L. BernasconiD - 7
K. SulemanaM - 15
M. De RoonM - 8
M. PasalicM - 59
N. ZalewskiM - 90
N. KrstovicF - 9
G. ScamaccaF
Substitutes (11)
57 · M. Sportiello
31 · F. Rossi
19 · B. Djimsiti
16 · R. Bellanova
6 · Y. Musah
45 · D. Vavassori
48 · F. Cassa
69 · H. Ahanor
5 · M. Bakker
3 · O. Kossounou
10 · L. Samardzic
Bayern München
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Vincent Kompany
- 40
J. UrbigG - 44
J. StanisicD - 2
D. UpamecanoD - 4
J. TahD - 27
K. LaimerD - 6
J. KimmichM - 45
A. PavlovicM - 17
M. OliseM - 7
S. GnabryM - 14
L. DiazM - 11
N. JacksonF
Substitutes (10)
26 · S. Ulreich
37 · L. Prescott
8 · L. Goretzka
22 · R. Guerreiro
19 · A. Davies
20 · T. Bischof
42 · L. Karl
9 · H. Kane
3 · Kim Min-Jae
10 · J. Musiala
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Atalanta
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Carnesecchi | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 26 | — |
| Davide Zappacosta | 67 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Isak Hien | 90 | 4.9 | — | 0 | — | 19 | 1 |
| Sead Kolašinac | 55 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 19 | 5 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi | 90 | 5.5 | — | 0 | — | 20 | 1 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana | 73 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Marten de Roon | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 43 | 4 |
| Mario Pašalić | 90 | 6.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 2 |
| Nicola Zalewski | 55 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 17 | 1 |
| Nikola Krstović | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 2 | 21 | — |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Berat Djimsiti | 45 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | — |
| Honest Ahanor | 35 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 7 | — |
| Yunus Musah | 35 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 11 | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | 23 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 11 | — |
| Lazar Samardžić | 17 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Francesco Rossi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Sportiello | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Odilon Kossounou | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mitchel Bakker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Cassa | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominic Vavassori | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bayern München
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Urbig | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 39 | — |
| Josip Stanišić | 86 | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | — |
| Dayot Upamecano | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 85 | 1 |
| Jonathan Tah | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 79 | 1 |
| Konrad Laimer | 45 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 29 | 4 |
| Joshua Kimmich | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 101 | — |
| Aleksandar Pavlović | 68 | 7.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 79 | 1 |
| Michael Olise | 90 | 10.0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 63 | — |
| Serge Gnabry | 45 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 27 | — |
| Luis Díaz | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 57 | — |
| Nicolas Jackson | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 30 | — |
| Alphonso Davies | 26 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 1 |
| Jamal Musiala | 45 | 6.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | — |
| Leon Goretzka | 22 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 14 | — |
| Tom Bischof | 19 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 14 | — |
| Raphaël Guerreiro | 9 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 7 | — |
| Leonard Prescott | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sven Ulreich | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Min-jae Kim | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lennart Karl | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harry Kane | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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