Türkiye
7/10Wins
2.2Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Türkiye’s results
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague A - 2THE MATCH CENTRETürkiye vs Italy match centre
Full time
1:4
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Baris Alper Yilmaz47′
Alessandro Bastoni9′
Davide Frattesi22′
Michael Kayode27′
Pio Esposito50′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 28 Sep 19:00 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
TürkiyeItaly
—Expected goals · API-Football—
2Shots on target8
14Total Shots14
53%Ball Possession47%
6Corner Kicks2
11Fouls21
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
4Goalkeeper Saves1
540Total passes474
464Passes accurate406
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Türkiye 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Italy 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 28 Sep, 18:55 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Italy
6/8Wins
1.6Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Italy’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Türkiye
10 matchesResults7 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game2.2
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
FranceHome · UEFA Nations League0–1USAHome · World Cup3–2ParaguayHome · World Cup0–1AustraliaAway · World Cup0–2VenezuelaAway · Friendlies2–1FYR MacedoniaHome · Friendlies4–0RomaniaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–0BulgariaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0GeorgiaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe4–1BulgariaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe6–1
Italy
8 matchesResults6 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals3 of 8
Both teams scored2 of 8
Past results, not predictions.
See results
BelgiumHome · UEFA Nations League0–2GreeceAway · Friendlies1–0LuxembourgAway · Friendlies1–0Northern IrelandHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0NorwayHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–4MoldovaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0IsraelHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–0EstoniaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Türkiye at home with Italy away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:09 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Nations League · 2026/27 · all league matches
TürkiyeItaly
2Matches played2
0Points earned3
0Wins1
0.5Goals scored / match2.0
2.5Goals conceded / match1.5
0Clean sheets0
1Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Türkiye at home with Italy away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
3 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Türkiye
0wins3MEETINGS
Italy
2winsJun 2021 – Jun 2024 · Historical meetings. Squads and team strength have changed.
Scores shown with Türkiye first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Türkiye
Most-used league formation3-4-2-11 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Italy
Most-used league formation4-3-32 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗UEFA Nations League table
Current standings · League A - Group A. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
France
BelgiumTHE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Türkiye | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.75 | 3.64 | 2.54 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.40 | 2.47 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
Snapshot from 28 Sep 2026, 19:00 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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