Likeliest match result
Iceland to win66.1% market implied
Stored odds 1.44 · 1xBet
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague C - 3THE MATCH CENTREIceland vs Bulgaria match centre
Pre-match
17:00
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Our model is Unavailable. This alternative view comes from margin-adjusted bookmaker prices.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Iceland to win
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance66.1%
Best stored price1.441xBet
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 69.4%.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals52.9% market implied
Stored odds 1.83 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No53.6% market implied
Stored odds 1.75 · William Hill
Double chance
Iceland or draw87.4% market implied
Stored odds 1.11 · Betano
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Iceland 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Bulgaria 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 1 Oct, 21:18 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home50.0%
Draw50.0%
Away0.0%
Combo Double chance : Iceland or draw and -3.5 goals
Fetched 2 Oct, 00:26 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Iceland
2/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
2.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect Iceland’s resultsBulgaria
2/9Wins
1.8Goals / game
2.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Bulgaria’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Iceland
10 matchesResults2 wins · 3 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game2.0
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
LuxembourgAway · UEFA Nations League3–0EstoniaHome · UEFA Nations League1–1ArgentinaAway · Friendlies0–3JapanAway · Friendlies0–1CanadaAway · Friendlies2–2MexicoAway · Friendlies0–4UkraineAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–2AzerbaijanAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0FranceHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–2UkraineHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–5
Bulgaria
9 matchesResults2 wins · 2 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.8
Goals conceded per game2.2
Games with 3+ goals6 of 9
Both teams scored5 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
EstoniaHome · UEFA Nations League0–0LuxembourgHome · UEFA Nations League1–2MoldovaAway · Friendlies2–2MontenegroHome · Friendlies0–1Solomon IslandsAway · FIFA Series10–2GeorgiaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–1TürkiyeAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–2SpainAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–4TürkiyeHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–6
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Iceland at home with Bulgaria away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 00:26 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Nations League · 2026/27 · all league matches
IcelandBulgaria
1Matches played1
1Points earned0
0Wins0
1.0Goals scored / match1.0
1.0Goals conceded / match2.0
0Clean sheets0
0Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Iceland at home with Bulgaria away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Iceland
Most-used league formation4-4-21 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Bulgaria
Most-used league formation4-2-3-11 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗UEFA Nations League table
Current standings · League C - Group D. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | WD |
| 2 |  Luxembourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 3 |  Estonia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Iceland | Draw | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.60 | 8.20 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.43 | 7.66 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 3.93 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 21:18 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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