Likeliest match result
Almeria to win48.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.65 · 1xBet
Segunda DivisiónMatchweek 8THE MATCH CENTREAlmeria vs Burgos match centre
Pre-match
15:15
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance74.2%
Best stored price1.28Bet365
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.52 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 78.1%. Estimated model return: -5.1% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals53.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.96 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes50.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.91 · Betfair
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)74.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.28 · Bet365
Projected goals
2.54 total · Almeria 1.51 · Burgos 1.03
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 12.3%1–0 11.9%2–1 9.3%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 08:46 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 05:43 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Almeria 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Burgos 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 2 Oct, 08:20 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Almeria48.2%
Draw25.8%
Burgos25.9%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Almeria45.0%
Draw45.0%
Burgos10.0%
Double chance : Almeria or draw
Fetched 2 Oct, 08:20 UKProvider percentages and advice are withheld when team identities, freshness, competition samples or large bookmaker disagreements fail our quality checks. Accepted percentages are shown as supplied; they are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards Almeria (48.2%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Almeria
7/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
0.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 8 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Almeria’s resultsBurgos
5/10Wins
1.2Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Burgos’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Almeria
10 matchesResults7 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game0.5
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored1 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
MallorcaAway · Segunda División1–0Celta de Vigo IIHome · Segunda División2–0CordobaAway · Segunda División2–0CadizHome · Segunda División3–2SabadellAway · Segunda División0–1TenerifeAway · Segunda División0–1EldenseHome · Segunda División3–0CordobaAway · Friendlies Clubs4–0Al-NassrAway · Friendlies Clubs2–0Real BetisAway · Friendlies Clubs0–1
Burgos
10 matchesResults5 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.2
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
EldenseHome · Segunda División1–0Las PalmasAway · Segunda División2–1AD Ceuta FCHome · Segunda División3–1OviedoAway · Segunda División0–0Real Sociedad IIHome · Segunda División2–2Sporting GijonAway · Segunda División0–1CordobaHome · Segunda División3–2Cultural LeonesaHome · Friendlies Clubs0–0Athletic ClubHome · Friendlies Clubs0–3Unionistas de SalamancaAway · Friendlies Clubs1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Almeria at home with Burgos away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 09:01 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Segunda División · 2026/27 · all league matches
AlmeriaBurgos
6Matches played6
12Points earned11
4Wins3
1.7Goals scored / match1.7
0.7Goals conceded / match1.2
3Clean sheets1
2Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Almeria at home with Burgos away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Almeria
Most-used league formation4-2-3-16 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Burgos
Most-used league formation4-4-23 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Segunda División table
Current standings · Segunda. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | WWWDD |
| 5 |  Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | WWLWW |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | LWWDW |
| 7 |  Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | DWLWW |
| 8 |  Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | WLWDW |
| 9 |  Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 | DLWDL |
| 10 |  Leganes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 | LLWDL |
| 12 |  Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 10 | LWLLW |
| 13 |  Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | LLWDD |
| 15 |  Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | DLLWL |
| 16 |  Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | WDLWD |
| 17 |  FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 | WLLLL |
| 18 |  Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 | LWLLL |
| 19 |  Eldense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | LLWDL |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | DLLLD |
| 21 |  AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 22 |  Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LLDLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Almeria | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.92 | 5.15 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 3.91 | 5.45 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.46 | 4.59 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 05:43 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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