P. BarriosMuscle Injury
Reported out
La LigaMatchweek 7THE MATCH CENTREAtletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match centre
Full time
2:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Alejandro Grimaldo53′ (pen)
Jonathan David59′
Antonio Rüdiger89′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Out of date · Calculated 20 Sep 13:28 UK.
Odds updated 20 Sep 14:47 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
Atletico MadridReal Madrid
2.350Expected goals · API-Football0.300
9Shots on target3
17Total Shots8
61%Ball Possession39%
3Corner Kicks1
19Fouls6
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves5
615Total passes393
554Passes accurate338
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Atletico Madrid 2 reported
A. SorlothMuscle Injury
Reported out
Real Madrid 3 reported
Eder MilitaoHamstring Injury
Reported out
F. MendyHip Injury
Reported out
RodrygoKnee Injury
Reported outFetched 20 Sep, 10:06 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Atletico Madrid
5/10Wins
1.9Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Atletico Madrid’s resultsReal Madrid
9/10Wins
2.5Goals / game
0.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Real Madrid’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Atletico Madrid
10 matchesResults5 wins · 1 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.9
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals9 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
OsasunaHome · La Liga4–0Real SociedadAway · La Liga3–0LiverpoolAway · UEFA Champions League1–2Athletic ClubAway · La Liga0–3SevillaAway · La Liga3–1VillarrealHome · La Liga2–2MalagaHome · La Liga2–0MarseilleAway · Friendlies Clubs2–1Manchester CityAway · Friendlies Clubs1–3Manchester UnitedAway · Friendlies Clubs1–2
Real Madrid
10 matchesResults9 wins · 0 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.5
Goals conceded per game0.8
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
ElcheAway · La Liga3–2Rayo VallecanoHome · La Liga4–1InterHome · UEFA Champions League2–1Real BetisAway · La Liga0–1MalagaHome · La Liga4–0Real SociedadHome · La Liga4–1EspanyolAway · La Liga2–1FC Schalke 04Away · Friendlies Clubs3–0Deportivo La CorunaAway · Friendlies Clubs1–0Ferencvarosi TCAway · Friendlies Clubs2–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Atletico Madrid at home with Real Madrid away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:59 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
La Liga · 2026/27 · all league matches
Atletico MadridReal Madrid
5Matches played5
10Points earned12
3Wins4
2.0Goals scored / match2.8
1.2Goals conceded / match0.8
2Clean sheets1
1Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Atletico Madrid at home with Real Madrid away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Atletico Madrid
2wins4MEETINGS
Real Madrid
2winsMar 2025 – Mar 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with Atletico Madrid first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2D. Simeone
- 13
J. OblakG - 14
Marcos LlorenteD - 18
Marc PubillD - 21
C. RomeroD - 17
D. HanckoD - 20
G. SimeoneM - 10
Álex BaenaM - 5
J. CardosoM - 22
Álex GrimaldoM - 7
Lee Kang-InF - 15
J. DavidF
Substitutes (12)
46 · J. Castillo
19 · J. Álvarez
27 · J. Dominguez
23 · M. Hjulmand
6 · Koke
24 · Robin Le Normand
11 · A. Lookman
4 · Rodrigo Mendoza
1 · J. Musso
16 · Arnau Ortiz
3 · O. Vargas
30 · Dani MartÃnez
Real Madrid
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1José Mourinho
- 1
T. CourtoisG - 24
D. DumfriesD - 16
I. KonatéD - 4
D. HuijsenD - 17
Marc CucurellaD - 8
F. ValverdeM - 14
A. TchouaméniM - 15
A. GülerM - 5
J. BellinghamM - 7
Vinícius JúniorM - 10
Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes (12)
2 · Raúl Asencio
6 · E. Camavinga
18 · Álvaro Fernández
21 · Brahim Díaz
25 · Y. Diomande
9 · Endrick
19 · Carlos Espí
13 · A. Lunin
27 · Thiago Pitarch
22 · A. Rüdiger
20 · Bernardo Silva
12 · T. Alexander-Arnold
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Baena | 67 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 |
| J. Oblak | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 |
| O. Vargas | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnau Ortiz | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Musso | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Lookman | 23 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 |
| Robin Le Normand | 1 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Koke | 45 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 64 | 0 |
| M. Hjulmand | 1 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| J. Dominguez | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Álvarez | 28 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| G. Simeone | 90 | 7.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 4 |
| C. Romero | 89 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 0 |
| Marc Pubill | 45 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1 |
| Marcos Llorente | 90 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 1 |
| Lee Kang-In | 89 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 57 | 2 |
| D. Hancko | 90 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 67 | 3 |
| Álex Grimaldo | 90 | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 47 | 1 |
| J. David | 62 | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| J. Cardoso | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 0 |
| J. Castillo | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dani MartÃnez | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Asencio | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| E. Camavinga | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 |
| Álvaro Fernández | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brahim Díaz | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Y. Diomande | 36 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Endrick | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Espí | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Lunin | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thiago Pitarch | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Rüdiger | 36 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Bernardo Silva | 8 | 6.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vinícius Júnior | 54 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| F. Valverde | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 |
| A. Tchouaméni | 71 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| I. Konaté | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 0 |
| D. Huijsen | 52 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 3 |
| A. Güler | 54 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| D. Dumfries | 90 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 2 |
| Marc Cucurella | 90 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 5 |
| J. Bellingham | 82 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 4 |
| T. Courtois | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗La Liga table
Current standings · La Liga. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 | DLDWW |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 8 | WWLLL |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 | DDWWL |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WLDDL |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | DWLWL |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 | DLLLW |
| 14 |  Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | WDDDL |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 | LLWLW |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 | LLDWD |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | WLDLL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | LLDDL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.76 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.95 |
Snapshot from 20 Sep 2026, 14:47 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
PUT YOUR VIEW TO THE TEST
Open practice slip +Try it with virtual funds
Start with £1,000 virtual funds. Choose a single or combine different matches in an accumulator, then track confirmed results. No real money. Record an actual bet in your manual journal ↗
Football data. A clearer perspective.Back to matches →