Real Madrid
5/10Wins
2.0Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Real Madrid’s results
La LigaMatchweek 33THE MATCH CENTREReal Madrid vs Alaves match centre
90′ · Live
2:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
K. Mbappe30′
Vinicius Junior50′
T. Martinez90+3′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate96.3%Real Madrid
Draw3.6%at full time
Current result estimate0.1%Alaves
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Real Madrid 4.3% · no further goal 91.9% · Alaves 3.7%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.Real MadridAlaves
1.630Expected goals · API-Football2.110
8Shots on target3
23Total Shots16
62%Ball Possession38%
9Corner Kicks6
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
3Goalkeeper Saves5
622Total passes363
562Passes accurate302
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primera DivisiónProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | +59 | 94 | — |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 39 | +43 | 89 | — |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | +26 | 72 | — |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | +18 | 69 | — |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | +11 | 60 | — |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | +5 | 54 | — |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | -6 | 51 | — |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -3 | 50 | — |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | -9 | 49 | — |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | -2 | 46 | — |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | -12 | 46 | — |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | -15 | 45 | — |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | -8 | 43 | ↑ 2 |
| 14 |  Alaves | 39 | -13 | 43 | — |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | -14 | 43 | ↓ 2 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | -6 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | -10 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | -14 | 42 | ↓ 2 |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | -16 | 41 | — |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | -34 | 29 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Real Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Alaves 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Alaves
1/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
2.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Alaves’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Real Madrid
10 matchesResults5 wins · 1 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Bayern MünchenAway · UEFA Champions League3–4GironaHome · La Liga1–1Bayern MünchenHome · UEFA Champions League1–2MallorcaAway · La Liga1–2Atletico MadridHome · La Liga3–2Manchester CityAway · UEFA Champions League2–1ElcheHome · La Liga4–1Manchester CityHome · UEFA Champions League3–0Celta VigoAway · La Liga2–1GetafeHome · La Liga0–1
Alaves
10 matchesResults1 wins · 5 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game2.2
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Real Madrid at home with Alaves away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:06 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
La Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
Real MadridAlaves
31Matches played31
70Points earned33
22Wins8
2.1Goals scored / match1.1
0.9Goals conceded / match1.5
11Clean sheets3
3Failed to score10
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Real Madrid at home with Alaves away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Real Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2Alvaro Arbeloa
- 13
A. LuninG - 12
T. Alexander-ArnoldD - 3
Eder MilitaoD - 24
D. HuijsenD - 18
A. CarrerasD - 8
F. ValverdeM - 5
J. BellinghamM - 14
A. TchouameniM - 15
A. GulerM - 10
K. MbappeF - 7
Vinicius JuniorF
Substitutes (12)
43 · S. Mestre
4 · D. Alaba
2 · D. Carvajal
22 · A. Rudiger
6 · E. Camavinga
30 · F. Mastantuono
45 · T. Pitarch
19 · D. Ceballos
23 · F. Mendy
21 · B. Diaz
20 · F. Garcia
16 · G. Garcia
Alaves
Confirmed formation5-3-2Quique Sanchez Flores
- 1
A. SiveraG - 7
A. PerezD - 17
Jonny OttoD - 14
N. TenagliaD - 24
V. ParadaD - 3
YusiD - 18
J. GuridiM - 8
A. BlancoM - 4
D. SuarezM - 11
T. MartinezF - 15
L. BoyeF
Substitutes (12)
13 · R. Fernandez
31 · G. Swiderski
16 · V. Koski
22 · I. Diabate
34 · A. Manas
27 · E. Munoz
9 · M. Diaz
10 · C. Alena
6 · A. Guevara
5 · J. Pacheco
20 · Calebe
19 · P. Ibanez
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriy Lunin | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 35 | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 63 | 7.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 65 | — |
| Éder Militão | 44 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2 |
| Dean Huijsen | 90 | 8.9 | — | 0 | — | 73 | 3 |
| Álvaro Carreras | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 74 | 5 |
| Federico Valverde | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 54 | 2 |
| Jude Bellingham | 58 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 63 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 42 | — |
| Arda Güler | 58 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | 51 | 1 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 42 | — |
| Vinicius Júnior | 90 | 9.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 43 | — |
| Antonio Rudiger | 46 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 34 | — |
| Brahim Díaz | 32 | 6.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 |
| Franco Mastantuono | 32 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 2 | 10 | — |
| Dani Carvajal | 27 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | 27 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 19 | — |
| Sergio Mestre | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferland Mendy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Alaba | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Ceballos | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alaves
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sivera | 90 | 5.6 | — | 0 | — | 23 | — |
| Ángel Pérez | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 36 | 1 |
| Jonny Otto | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 46 | 5 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 17 | 2 |
| Victor Parada | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim | 66 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 14 | — |
| Jon Guridi | 58 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 18 | 2 |
| Antonio Blanco | 75 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 50 | 2 |
| Denis Suarez | 58 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 24 | — |
| Toni Martínez | 90 | 6.5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Lucas Boyé | 66 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 15 | 2 |
| Carles Aleñá | 32 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 24 | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | 32 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 |
| Calebe Gonçalves | 24 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 10 | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | 24 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Ander Guevara | 15 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 18 | — |
| Grégoire Swiderski | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Fernández | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ville Koski | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Pacheco | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Egoitz Muñoz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Diaz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Real Madrid | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.50 | 11.00 |
Snapshot from 20 Apr 2026, 18:15 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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