Toluca
7/10Wins
2.0Goals / game
0.6Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Toluca’s results
Liga MXClausura - 8THE MATCH CENTREToluca vs Guadalajara Chivas match centre
87′ · Live
2:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
J. Gallardo5′ (pen)
J. Diaz16′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
87′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate99.9%Toluca
Draw0.1%at full time
Current result estimate0.0%Guadalajara Chivas
Another goal8.5%before full time
Next goal: Toluca 4.1% · no further goal 91.5% · Guadalajara Chivas 4.4%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.TolucaGuadalajara Chivas
1.410Expected goals · API-Football0.670
5Shots on target4
11Total Shots9
48%Ball Possession52%
2Corner Kicks4
18Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
4Goalkeeper Saves3
328Total passes356
264Passes accurate290
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Liga MX, Clausura 2026Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | +17 | 36 | — |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 18 | +14 | 36 | — |
| 3 | Toluca | 18 | +14 | 33 | ↑ 2 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 17 | +13 | 33 | ↓ 1 |
| 5 |  CF Pachuca | 17 | +6 | 31 | ↓ 1 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 17 | -2 | 26 | — |
| 7 |  Tigres UANL | 17 | +10 | 25 | — |
| 8 |  Club America | 17 | +3 | 25 | — |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 17 | +2 | 23 | — |
| 10 |  Leon | 17 | -10 | 22 | — |
| 11 |  Club Queretaro | 17 | -4 | 20 | — |
| 12 |  FC Juarez | 17 | -6 | 19 | — |
| 13 |  Monterrey | 17 | -2 | 18 | — |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 17 | -3 | 18 | — |
| 15 |  Necaxa | 17 | -6 | 18 | — |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 17 | -15 | 15 | — |
| 17 |  Puebla | 17 | -13 | 13 | — |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 17 | -18 | 12 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Toluca 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Guadalajara Chivas 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Guadalajara Chivas
5/9Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect Guadalajara Chivas’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Toluca
10 matchesResults7 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game0.6
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Guadalajara Chivas
9 matchesResults5 wins · 2 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals6 of 9
Both teams scored6 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Toluca at home with Guadalajara Chivas away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:53 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Liga MX · 2025/26 · all league matches
TolucaGuadalajara Chivas
30Matches played26
62Points earned48
18Wins15
2.0Goals scored / match1.7
0.9Goals conceded / match1.2
12Clean sheets8
8Failed to score6
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Toluca at home with Guadalajara Chivas away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Toluca
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
- 22
L. GarciaG - 2
D. BarbosaD - 4
Bruno MendezD - 6
F. PereiraD - 20
J. GallardoD - 5
F. RomeroM - 14
M. RuizM - 19
S. SimonM - 10
J. AnguloM - 29
J. DiazM - 26
PaulinhoF
Substitutes (10)
1 · H. Gonzalez
3 · A. Briseno
13 · Luan
17 · M. Isais
25 · E. del Villar
7 · S. Cordova
15 · P. Perez
24 · F. Arce
11 · Helinho
27 · F. Rossi
Guadalajara Chivas
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Gabriel Milito
- 1
R. RangelG - 19
D. Campillo Del CampoD - 7
L. RomoD - 2
J. CastilloD - 37
R. LedezmaM - 28
F. GonzalezM - 23
D. AguirreM - 5
B. GonzalezM - 25
R. AlvaradoF - 10
E. AlvarezF - 34
A. GonzalezF
Substitutes (10)
13 · O. Whalley
3 · G. Sepulveda
24 · M. Gomez
6 · O. Govea
11 · B. Gutierrez
226 · S. Sandoval
17 · R. Marin
20 · A. Sepulveda
26 · H. Camberos
31 · Y. Padilla
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Toluca
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | 42 | — |
| Diego Barbosa | 96 | 7.3 | — | — | — | 31 | 4 |
| Bruno Méndez | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | 26 | 4 |
| Federico Pereira | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 2 |
| Jesús Gallardo | 93 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 3 |
| Franco Romero | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | 38 | 3 |
| Marcel Ruíz | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 4 |
| Santiago Simón | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | 20 | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | — | 26 | — |
| Jorge Díaz | 71 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Paulinho | 96 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Everardo López | 51 | 6.6 | — | — | — | 16 | — |
| Helinho | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pavel Pérez | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | 2 | 1 |
| Luan Garcia | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Arce Juárez | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Gonzalez | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Briseño | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio Andre Isais | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Guadalajara Chivas
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Rangel | 96 | 6.5 | — | — | — | 41 | — |
| Diego Campillo | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | 51 | 1 |
| Luis Romo | 40 | 6.0 | — | — | — | 28 | — |
| José Castillo | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | 15 | 2 |
| Richard Ledezma | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | 14 | — |
| Fernando González | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | — | 56 | 2 |
| Daniel Aguirre | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | 26 | 2 |
| Bryan González | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | 31 | 5 |
| Roberto Alvarado | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 57 | — |
| Efrain Alvarez | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | 18 | 1 |
| Armando González | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | — | 9 | — |
| Brian Gutierrez | 56 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 5 |
| Santiago Sandoval | 51 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| Hugo Camberos | 51 | 6.9 | — | — | — | 19 | 1 |
| Ángel Sepúlveda | 51 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Ricardo Marín | 36 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 4 | — |
| Óscar Whalley | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Sepúlveda | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Gómez | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Govea | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yael Padilla | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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