Mazatlán
3/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 2 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect Mazatlán’s results
Liga MXClausura - 16THE MATCH CENTREMazatlán vs Toluca match centre
90′ · Live
4:3
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
B. Rubio49′
Y. Barcenas68′ (pen)
G. Lopez75′
D. Hernandez88′
E. del Villar45+5′
A. Briseno54′
N. Castro87′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate97.5%Mazatlán
Draw2.4%at full time
Current result estimate0.0%Toluca
Another goal7.2%before full time
Next goal: Mazatlán 4.7% · no further goal 92.8% · Toluca 2.5%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.MazatlánToluca
2.010Expected goals · API-Football1.580
6Shots on target7
16Total Shots10
42%Ball Possession58%
3Corner Kicks7
12Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Goalkeeper Saves2
299Total passes419
250Passes accurate356
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Liga MX, Clausura 2026Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 17 | +17 | 36 | — |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | +16 | 36 | — |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 17 | +13 | 33 | — |
| 4 |  CF Pachuca | 17 | +6 | 31 | — |
| 5 |  Toluca | 18 | +11 | 30 | — |
| 6 |  Atlas | 17 | -2 | 26 | — |
| 7 |  Tigres UANL | 17 | +10 | 25 | — |
| 8 |  Club America | 17 | +3 | 25 | — |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 17 | +2 | 23 | — |
| 10 |  Leon | 17 | -10 | 22 | — |
| 11 |  Club Queretaro | 17 | -4 | 20 | — |
| 12 |  FC Juarez | 17 | -6 | 19 | — |
| 13 |  Monterrey | 17 | -2 | 18 | — |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 17 | -3 | 18 | — |
| 15 |  Necaxa | 17 | -6 | 18 | — |
| 16 | Mazatlán | 18 | -14 | 18 | — |
| 17 |  Puebla | 17 | -13 | 13 | — |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 17 | -18 | 12 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Mazatlán 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Toluca 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Toluca
4/10Wins
2.0Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Toluca’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Mazatlán
10 matchesResults3 wins · 3 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Toluca
10 matchesResults4 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Club AmericaAway · Liga MX1–2Los Angeles GalaxyAway · CONCACAF Champions League3–0Atletico San LuisHome · Liga MX1–1Los Angeles GalaxyHome · CONCACAF Champions League4–2Club QueretaroAway · Liga MX0–1PachucaAway · Liga MX1–1San DiegoHome · CONCACAF Champions League4–0AtlasHome · Liga MX1–1San DiegoAway · CONCACAF Champions League2–3FC JuarezHome · Liga MX3–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Mazatlán at home with Toluca away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:46 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Liga MX · 2025/26 · all league matches
MazatlánToluca
32Matches played38
26Points earned74
5Wins21
1.2Goals scored / match1.9
1.8Goals conceded / match1.0
2Clean sheets13
7Failed to score9
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Mazatlán at home with Toluca away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Mazatlán
Confirmed formation5-4-1Sergio Bueno
- 33
R. RodriguezG - 21
S. SantosD - 5
F. AlmadaD - 19
L. MerollaD - 4
J. DiazD - 14
M. ZaletaD - 7
DuduM - 11
Y. BarcenasM - 25
S. Godinez - 17
J. OvalleM - 15
B. RubioF
Substitutes (10)
13 · V. A. Alcaraz Diaz
9 · B. Arce
16 · J. Esquivel
90 · Fabio Gomes
193 · G. Lopez
31 · A. A. Saavedra Nevarez
20 · M. Lainez
28 · D. Hernandez
27 · G. Adame
26 · A. Leyva
Toluca
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
- 1
H. GonzalezG - 2
D. BarbosaD - 3
A. BrisenoD - 25
E. del VillarD - 17
M. IsaisD - 24
F. ArceM - 14
M. RuizM - 15
P. PerezM - 29
J. DiazM - 9
A. VegaM - 27
F. RossiF
Substitutes (10)
22 · L. Garcia
19 · S. Simon
206 · E. Orta
33 · V. Arteaga
10 · J. Angulo
4 · Bruno Mendez
7 · S. Cordova
8 · N. Castro
5 · F. Romero
23 · O. Virgen
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Mazatlán
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Rodríguez | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Sebastián Santos | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 32 | 2 |
| Facundo Almada | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 3 |
| Lucas Merolla | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 27 | 2 |
| Jair Díaz | 72 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 21 | 5 |
| Mauro Zaleta | 72 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 28 | 3 |
| Dudu | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Yoel Bárcenas | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 45 | 4 |
| Said Godínez | 72 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Josué Ovalle | 86 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 19 | 3 |
| Brian Rubio | 87 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Mauro Laínez | 18 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| Fábio Gomes | 18 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | — |
| Gabriel Lopez | 18 | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Jesús Hernández | 14 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Billy Arce | 13 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 8 | 1 |
| André Alcaraz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Angel Leyva | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Joaquín Esquivel | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Angel Saavedra | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Adame | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Toluca
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Gonzalez | 90 | 5.6 | — | 0 | — | 33 | — |
| Diego Barbosa | 90 | 5.3 | — | 0 | — | 39 | 6 |
| Antonio Briseño | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Everardo López | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 6 |
| Mauricio Andre Isais | 81 | 5.5 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 1 |
| Pavel Pérez | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 54 | 2 |
| Marcel Ruíz | 60 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 54 | 4 |
| Jorge Díaz | 45 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 24 | — |
| Fernando Arce Juárez | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 43 | 3 |
| Alexis Vega | 81 | 6.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Franco Rossi | 57 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 16 | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | 45 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | 17 | 1 |
| Bruno Méndez | 33 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Nicolás Castro | 9 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | — |
| Oswaldo Virgen | 9 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Garcia | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Orta | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Arteaga | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Romero | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Mazatlán | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
Snapshot from 22 Apr 2026, 21:02 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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