Likeliest match result
Portugal to win48.0% market implied
Stored odds 2.08 · SBO
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague A - 3THE MATCH CENTREDenmark vs Portugal match centre
Full time
2:4
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Mikkel Damsgaard23′
Rasmus Hojlund53′
João Cancelo13′
Gonçalo Ramos25′
Vitinha67′
Joao Felix87′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
Pre-match research only
Portugal or draw
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance74.0%
Best stored price1.30Marathonbet
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 76.9%.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals57.2% market implied
Stored odds 1.71 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes59.9% market implied
Stored odds 1.57 · Betano
Double chance
Portugal or draw74.0% market implied
Stored odds 1.30 · Marathonbet
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 1 Oct 19:00 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
DenmarkPortugal
—Expected goals · API-Football—
3Shots on target10
12Total Shots19
54%Ball Possession46%
3Corner Kicks7
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
7Goalkeeper Saves1
513Total passes437
444Passes accurate363
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Denmark 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Portugal 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 1 Oct, 18:06 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Denmark
5/9Wins
2.6Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Denmark’s resultsPortugal
6/10Wins
1.5Goals / game
0.6Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Portugal’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Denmark
9 matchesResults5 wins · 2 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.6
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals7 of 9
Both teams scored5 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
WalesHome · UEFA Nations League2–0NorwayAway · UEFA Nations League2–3UkraineHome · Friendlies2–1Congo DRAway · Friendlies0–0FYR MacedoniaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe4–0ScotlandAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–4BelarusHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–2GreeceHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–1BelarusAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe6–0
Portugal
10 matchesResults6 wins · 3 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game0.6
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Denmark at home with Portugal away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 1 Oct, 23:29 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Nations League · 2026/27 · all league matches
DenmarkPortugal
2Matches played2
3Points earned6
1Wins2
2.0Goals scored / match1.5
1.5Goals conceded / match0.5
1Clean sheets1
0Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Denmark at home with Portugal away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
3 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Denmark
1wins3MEETINGS
Portugal
2winsJun 2012 – Mar 2025 · Past results, not a forecast.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Denmark
Most-used league formation4-2-3-12 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Portugal
Most-used league formation4-1-3-22 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗UEFA Nations League table
Current standings · League A - Group D. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
Norway
WalesTHE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Denmark | Draw | Portugal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 3.78 | 3.78 | 1.99 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 3.84 | 3.72 | 1.98 |
| SBO | 3.18 | 3.42 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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