Real Madrid
7/10Wins
1.9Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 8 wins from 9 available matches.
Inspect Real Madrid’s results
UEFA Champions LeagueQuarter-finalsTHE MATCH CENTREReal Madrid vs Bayern München match centre
90′ · Live
1:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
K. Mbappe74′
L. Diaz41′
H. Kane46′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%Real Madrid
Draw4.1%at full time
Current result estimate95.8%Bayern München
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Real Madrid 4.3% · no further goal 91.9% · Bayern München 3.8%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.Real MadridBayern München
1.970Expected goals · API-Football2.990
9Shots on target8
19Total Shots20
48%Ball Possession52%
7Corner Kicks11
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
—Red Cards—
5Goalkeeper Saves9
426Total passes471
366Passes accurate419
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
UEFA Champions LeagueProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 8 | +19 | 24 | — |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 9 | +15 | 24 | — |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | +12 | 18 | — |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | +10 | 17 | — |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 8 | +8 | 16 | — |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 8 | +7 | 16 | — |
| 7 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 8 |  Manchester City | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 9 | +8 | 15 | — |
| 10 |  Inter | 8 | +8 | 15 | — |
| 11 |  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 13 |  Juventus | 8 | +4 | 13 | — |
| 14 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | +2 | 13 | — |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 8 | 0 | 13 | — |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | -1 | 12 | — |
| 17 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | +2 | 11 | — |
| 18 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | -4 | 11 | — |
| 19 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 20 |  Galatasaray | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 21 |  Monaco | 8 | -6 | 10 | — |
| 22 |  Qarabag | 8 | -8 | 10 | — |
| 23 |  Bodo/Glimt | 8 | -1 | 9 | — |
| 24 |  Benfica | 8 | -2 | 9 | — |
| 25 |  Marseille | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 26 |  Pafos | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 27 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | -9 | 9 | — |
| 28 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 0 | 8 | — |
| 29 |  Athletic Club | 8 | -5 | 8 | — |
| 30 |  Napoli | 8 | -6 | 8 | — |
| 31 |  FC Copenhagen | 8 | -9 | 8 | — |
| 32 |  Ajax | 8 | -13 | 6 | — |
| 33 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | -11 | 4 | — |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | -14 | 3 | — |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | -13 | 1 | — |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | -15 | 1 | — |
Quarter-finalsReal Madrid 1–2 Bayern München
→Current progressionBayern München
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Real Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Bayern München 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Bayern München
9/10Wins
3.3Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At away venues, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Bayern München’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Real Madrid
10 matchesResults7 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.9
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
MallorcaAway · La Liga1–2Atletico MadridHome · La Liga3–2Manchester CityAway · UEFA Champions League2–1ElcheHome · La Liga4–1Manchester CityHome · UEFA Champions League3–0Celta VigoAway · La Liga2–1GetafeHome · La Liga0–1BenficaHome · UEFA Champions League2–1OsasunaAway · La Liga1–2BenficaAway · UEFA Champions League1–0
Bayern München
10 matchesResults9 wins · 1 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game3.3
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
SC FreiburgAway · Bundesliga3–2Union BerlinHome · Bundesliga4–0AtalantaHome · UEFA Champions League4–1Bayer LeverkusenAway · Bundesliga1–1AtalantaAway · UEFA Champions League6–1Borussia MönchengladbachHome · Bundesliga4–1Borussia DortmundAway · Bundesliga3–2Eintracht FrankfurtHome · Bundesliga3–2Werder BremenAway · Bundesliga3–0RB LeipzigHome · DFB Pokal2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Real Madrid at home with Bayern München away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:57 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Champions League · 2025/26 · all league matches
Real MadridBayern München
12Matches played10
27Points earned27
9Wins9
2.4Goals scored / match3.2
1.2Goals conceded / match1.0
4Clean sheets2
1Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Real Madrid at home with Bayern München away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Real Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2Alvaro Arbeloa
- 13
A. LuninG - 12
T. Alexander-ArnoldD - 22
A. RudigerD - 24
D. HuijsenD - 18
A. CarrerasD - 8
F. ValverdeM - 45
T. PitarchM - 14
A. TchouameniM - 15
A. GulerM - 10
K. MbappeF - 7
Vinicius JuniorF
Substitutes (12)
26 · Fran
4 · D. Alaba
2 · D. Carvajal
3 · Eder Militao
6 · E. Camavinga
30 · F. Mastantuono
19 · D. Ceballos
21 · B. Diaz
20 · F. Garcia
5 · J. Bellingham
17 · R. Asencio
16 · G. Garcia
Bayern München
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Vincent Kompany
- 1
M. NeuerG - 44
J. StanisicD - 2
D. UpamecanoD - 4
J. TahD - 27
K. LaimerD - 45
A. PavlovicM - 6
J. KimmichM - 17
M. OliseM - 7
S. GnabryM - 14
L. DiazM - 9
H. KaneF
Substitutes (11)
37 · L. Prescott
40 · J. Urbig
8 · L. Goretzka
22 · R. Guerreiro
19 · A. Davies
11 · N. Jackson
20 · T. Bischof
42 · L. Karl
3 · Kim Min-Jae
21 · H. Ito
10 · J. Musiala
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriy Lunin | 90 | 8.0 | — | 0 | — | 27 | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | 52 | 2 |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 45 | — |
| Dean Huijsen | 62 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 43 | 1 |
| Álvaro Carreras | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 47 | 1 |
| Federico Valverde | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 33 | 3 |
| Thiago Pitarch | 62 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 25 | — |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 46 | 2 |
| Arda Güler | 71 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 37 | 2 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Vinicius Júnior | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 7 | 29 | — |
| Éder Militão | 28 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 2 | 20 | — |
| Jude Bellingham | 28 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| Brahim Díaz | 19 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Fran González | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Carvajal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Alaba | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Asencio | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Ceballos | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Mastantuono | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bayern München
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Neuer | 90 | 8.9 | — | 0 | — | 37 | — |
| Josip Stanišić | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 45 | 4 |
| Dayot Upamecano | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 43 | 3 |
| Jonathan Tah | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 40 | — |
| Konrad Laimer | 69 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | — |
| Aleksandar Pavlović | 89 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 78 | 2 |
| Joshua Kimmich | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 85 | 1 |
| Michael Olise | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 3 | 48 | — |
| Serge Gnabry | 69 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Luis Díaz | 89 | 6.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 42 | — |
| Harry Kane | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Jamal Musiala | 21 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 2 | 5 | — |
| Alphonso Davies | 21 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Leon Goretzka | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Tom Bischof | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Jonas Urbig | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Min-jae Kim | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Jackson | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hiroki Itō | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raphaël Guerreiro | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erblin Osmani | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lennart Karl | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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