Manchester City
7/10Wins
1.9Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 8 available matches.
Inspect Manchester City’s results
UEFA Champions LeagueRound of 16THE MATCH CENTREManchester City vs Real Madrid match centre
90′ · Live
1:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
E. Haaland41′
Vinicius Junior22′ (pen)
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate2.3%Manchester City
Draw93.3%at full time
Current result estimate4.3%Real Madrid
Another goal6.8%before full time
Next goal: Manchester City 2.4% · no further goal 93.2% · Real Madrid 4.4%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.Manchester CityReal Madrid
1.910Expected goals · API-Football2.930
8Shots on target6
22Total Shots13
49%Ball Possession51%
9Corner Kicks6
6Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
4Goalkeeper Saves7
478Total passes512
439Passes accurate467
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
UEFA Champions LeagueProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 8 | +19 | 24 | — |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 8 | +14 | 21 | — |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | +12 | 18 | — |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | +10 | 17 | — |
| 5 | Manchester City | 9 | +6 | 17 | ↑ 3 |
| 6 |  Real Madrid | 9 | +9 | 16 | ↑ 3 |
| 7 |  Barcelona | 8 | +8 | 16 | ↓ 2 |
| 8 |  Chelsea | 8 | +7 | 16 | ↓ 2 |
| 9 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +6 | 16 | ↓ 2 |
| 10 |  Inter | 8 | +8 | 15 | — |
| 11 |  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 13 |  Juventus | 8 | +4 | 13 | — |
| 14 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | +2 | 13 | — |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 8 | 0 | 13 | — |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | -1 | 12 | — |
| 17 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | +2 | 11 | — |
| 18 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | -4 | 11 | — |
| 19 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 20 |  Galatasaray | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 21 |  Monaco | 8 | -6 | 10 | — |
| 22 |  Qarabag | 8 | -8 | 10 | — |
| 23 |  Bodo/Glimt | 8 | -1 | 9 | — |
| 24 |  Benfica | 8 | -2 | 9 | — |
| 25 |  Marseille | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 26 |  Pafos | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 27 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | -9 | 9 | — |
| 28 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 0 | 8 | — |
| 29 |  Athletic Club | 8 | -5 | 8 | — |
| 30 |  Napoli | 8 | -6 | 8 | — |
| 31 |  FC Copenhagen | 8 | -9 | 8 | — |
| 32 |  Ajax | 8 | -13 | 6 | — |
| 33 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | -11 | 4 | — |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | -14 | 3 | — |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | -13 | 1 | — |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | -15 | 1 | — |
Round of 16Manchester City 1–1 Real Madrid
→Current progressionLevel
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Manchester City 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Real Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Real Madrid
8/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
0.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Real Madrid’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Manchester City
10 matchesResults7 wins · 2 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game1.9
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
West HamAway · Premier League1–1Real MadridAway · UEFA Champions League0–3NewcastleAway · FA Cup3–1Nottingham ForestHome · Premier League2–2LeedsAway · Premier League1–0NewcastleHome · Premier League2–1Salford CityHome · FA Cup2–0FulhamHome · Premier League3–0LiverpoolAway · Premier League2–1NewcastleHome · League Cup3–1
Real Madrid
10 matchesResults8 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game0.8
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
ElcheHome · La Liga4–1Manchester CityHome · UEFA Champions League3–0Celta VigoAway · La Liga2–1GetafeHome · La Liga0–1BenficaHome · UEFA Champions League2–1OsasunaAway · La Liga1–2BenficaAway · UEFA Champions League1–0Real SociedadHome · La Liga4–1ValenciaAway · La Liga2–0Rayo VallecanoHome · La Liga2–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Manchester City at home with Real Madrid away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:57 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Champions League · 2025/26 · all league matches
Manchester CityReal Madrid
9Matches played11
16Points earned24
5Wins8
1.7Goals scored / match2.5
1.4Goals conceded / match1.2
3Clean sheets4
2Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Manchester City at home with Real Madrid away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Manchester City
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Pep Guardiola
- 25
G. DonnarummaG - 27
M. NunesD - 45
A. KhusanovD - 3
R. DiasD - 21
R. Ait-NouriD - 20
B. SilvaM - 16
RodriM - 10
R. CherkiM - 4
T. ReijndersM - 11
J. DokuM - 9
E. HaalandF
Substitutes (12)
1 · J. Trafford
42 · A. Semenyo
82 · R. Lewis
33 · N. O'Reilly
8 · M. Kovacic
5 · J. Stones
6 · N. Ake
47 · P. Foden
15 · M. Guehi
7 · O. Marmoush
14 · Nico
26 · Savinho
Real Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2Alvaro Arbeloa
- 1
T. CourtoisG - 12
T. Alexander-ArnoldD - 22
A. RudigerD - 24
D. HuijsenD - 20
F. GarciaD - 8
F. ValverdeM - 45
T. PitarchM - 14
A. TchouameniM - 15
A. GulerM - 21
B. DiazF - 7
Vinicius JuniorF
Substitutes (12)
13 · A. Lunin
4 · D. Alaba
2 · D. Carvajal
10 · K. Mbappe
6 · E. Camavinga
18 · A. Carreras
37 · M. A. Moran
30 · F. Mastantuono
38 · C. Palacios
27 · D. Aguado
16 · G. Garcia
28 · J. Cestero Sancho
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Manchester City
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 20 | — |
| Matheus Nunes | 57 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 31 | — |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 59 | 5 |
| Rúben Dias | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 31 | — |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 44 | 3 |
| Bernardo Silva | 20 | 4.0 | — | 0 | — | 25 | — |
| Rodri | 74 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Rayan Cherki | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 71 | 1 |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 45 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 32 | 1 |
| Jérémy Doku | 90 | 8.2 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 1 |
| Erling Haaland | 56 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | — |
| Nathan Aké | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 1 |
| Marc Guéhi | 45 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 27 | — |
| Omar Marmoush | 34 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 6 | — |
| Antoine Semenyo | 33 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Nico González | 16 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 12 | — |
| James Trafford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rico Lewis | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Stones | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Phil Foden | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Savinho | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | 45 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 21 | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 83 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 42 | 5 |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 59 | — |
| Dean Huijsen | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 90 | — |
| Fran García | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 35 | — |
| Federico Valverde | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 37 | 3 |
| Thiago Pitarch | 74 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 30 | 2 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 48 | 4 |
| Arda Güler | 74 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 60 | — |
| Brahim Díaz | 69 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Vinicius Júnior | 90 | 7.2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 27 | — |
| Andriy Lunin | 45 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 20 | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | 21 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 13 | — |
| Manuel Ángel Morán | 16 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 16 | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | 16 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Daniel Carvajal | 12 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 6 | 1 |
| Diego Aguado | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Alaba | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Carreras | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Cestero | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| César Palacios | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Mastantuono | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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