Real Madrid
7/10Wins
1.8Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect Real Madrid’s results
UEFA Champions LeagueRound of 16THE MATCH CENTREReal Madrid vs Manchester City match centre
90′ · Live
3:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
F. Valverde20′
F. Valverde27′
F. Valverde42′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate100.0%Real Madrid
Draw0.0%at full time
Current result estimate0.0%Manchester City
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Real Madrid 4.0% · no further goal 91.9% · Manchester City 4.1%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.Real MadridManchester City
2.590Expected goals · API-Football0.560
7Shots on target4
12Total Shots8
40%Ball Possession60%
1Corner Kicks10
11Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
4Goalkeeper Saves4
370Total passes560
321Passes accurate502
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
UEFA Champions LeagueProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 8 | +19 | 24 | — |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 8 | +14 | 21 | — |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | +12 | 18 | ↑ 6 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 8 | +12 | 18 | ↓ 1 |
| 5 |  Tottenham | 8 | +10 | 17 | ↓ 1 |
| 6 |  Barcelona | 8 | +8 | 16 | ↓ 1 |
| 7 |  Chelsea | 8 | +7 | 16 | ↓ 1 |
| 8 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +6 | 16 | ↓ 1 |
| 9 |  Manchester City | 9 | +3 | 16 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  Inter | 8 | +8 | 15 | — |
| 11 |  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 13 |  Juventus | 8 | +4 | 13 | — |
| 14 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | +2 | 13 | — |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 8 | 0 | 13 | — |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | -1 | 12 | — |
| 17 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | +2 | 11 | — |
| 18 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | -4 | 11 | — |
| 19 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 20 |  Galatasaray | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 21 |  Monaco | 8 | -6 | 10 | — |
| 22 |  Qarabag | 8 | -8 | 10 | — |
| 23 |  Bodo/Glimt | 8 | -1 | 9 | — |
| 24 |  Benfica | 8 | -2 | 9 | — |
| 25 |  Marseille | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 26 |  Pafos | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 27 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | -9 | 9 | — |
| 28 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 0 | 8 | — |
| 29 |  Athletic Club | 8 | -5 | 8 | — |
| 30 |  Napoli | 8 | -6 | 8 | — |
| 31 |  FC Copenhagen | 8 | -9 | 8 | — |
| 32 |  Ajax | 8 | -13 | 6 | — |
| 33 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | -11 | 4 | — |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | -14 | 3 | — |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | -13 | 1 | — |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | -15 | 1 | — |
Round of 16Real Madrid 3–0 Manchester City
→Current progressionReal Madrid
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Real Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Manchester City 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Manchester City
8/10Wins
2.2Goals / game
0.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Manchester City’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Real Madrid
10 matchesResults7 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.8
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Celta VigoAway · La Liga2–1GetafeHome · La Liga0–1BenficaHome · UEFA Champions League2–1OsasunaAway · La Liga1–2BenficaAway · UEFA Champions League1–0Real SociedadHome · La Liga4–1ValenciaAway · La Liga2–0Rayo VallecanoHome · La Liga2–1BenficaAway · UEFA Champions League2–4VillarrealAway · La Liga2–0
Manchester City
10 matchesResults8 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game2.2
Goals conceded per game0.8
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
NewcastleAway · FA Cup3–1Nottingham ForestHome · Premier League2–2LeedsAway · Premier League1–0NewcastleHome · Premier League2–1Salford CityHome · FA Cup2–0FulhamHome · Premier League3–0LiverpoolAway · Premier League2–1NewcastleHome · League Cup3–1TottenhamAway · Premier League2–2GalatasarayHome · UEFA Champions League2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Real Madrid at home with Manchester City away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 05:53 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Champions League · 2025/26 · all league matches
Real MadridManchester City
10Matches played8
21Points earned16
7Wins5
2.4Goals scored / match1.9
1.3Goals conceded / match1.2
3Clean sheets3
1Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Real Madrid at home with Manchester City away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Real Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2Alvaro Arbeloa
- 1
T. CourtoisG - 12
T. Alexander-ArnoldD - 22
A. RudigerD - 24
D. HuijsenD - 23
F. MendyD - 8
F. ValverdeM - 45
T. PitarchM - 14
A. TchouameniM - 15
A. GulerM - 21
B. DiazF - 7
Vinicius JuniorF
Substitutes (12)
26 · Fran
13 · A. Lunin
2 · D. Carvajal
6 · E. Camavinga
37 · M. A. Moran
30 · F. Mastantuono
38 · C. Palacios
27 · D. Aguado
20 · F. Garcia
17 · R. Asencio
16 · G. Garcia
28 · J. Cestero Sancho
Manchester City
Confirmed formation4-1-3-2Pep Guardiola
- 25
G. DonnarummaG - 45
A. KhusanovD - 3
R. DiasD - 15
M. GuehiD - 33
N. O'ReillyD - 16
RodriM - 26
SavinhoM - 20
B. SilvaM - 11
J. DokuM - 42
A. SemenyoF - 9
E. HaalandF
Substitutes (12)
13 · M. Bettinelli
1 · J. Trafford
4 · T. Reijnders
21 · R. Ait-Nouri
27 · M. Nunes
5 · J. Stones
6 · N. Ake
47 · P. Foden
7 · O. Marmoush
14 · Nico
10 · R. Cherki
68 · M. Alleyne
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | 90 | 8.5 | — | 1 | — | 37 | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 83 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 33 | 2 |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | — | 41 | 2 |
| Dean Huijsen | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 47 | 1 |
| Ferland Mendy | 45 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 20 | 1 |
| Federico Valverde | 90 | 10.0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 4 |
| Thiago Pitarch | 76 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 34 | 1 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 29 | 2 |
| Arda Güler | 70 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 28 | 2 |
| Brahim Díaz | 76 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Vinicius Júnior | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Fran García | 45 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 11 | 2 |
| Eduardo Camavinga | 20 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 8 | 2 |
| Manuel Ángel Morán | 14 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 4 | 1 |
| Franco Mastantuono | 14 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Daniel Carvajal | 11 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Andriy Lunin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran González | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Asencio | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Aguado | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Cestero | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| César Palacios | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Manchester City
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 17 | — |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 91 | 1 |
| Rúben Dias | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 86 | 1 |
| Marc Guéhi | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 69 | 1 |
| Nico O'Reilly | 90 | 5.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 28 | 2 |
| Rodri | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 102 | 3 |
| Savinho | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 17 | 1 |
| Bernardo Silva | 70 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 37 | 2 |
| Jérémy Doku | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 2 |
| Antoine Semenyo | 69 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 2 | 26 | — |
| Erling Haaland | 82 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 7 | — |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 11 | — |
| Rayan Cherki | 21 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 31 | — |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | 20 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 1 |
| Omar Marmoush | 8 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | — |
| James Trafford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Bettinelli | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Aké | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nunes | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Alleyne | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Stones | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico González | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Phil Foden | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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