Villarreal
4/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Villarreal’s results
La LigaMatchweek 38THE MATCH CENTREVillarreal vs Atletico Madrid match centre
90′ · Live
5:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
D. Parejo30′ (pen)
A. Perez34′
G. Mikautadze40′
P. Gueye45′
A. Perez54′
M. Pubill43′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate100.0%Villarreal
Draw0.0%at full time
Current result estimate0.0%Atletico Madrid
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Villarreal 4.2% · no further goal 91.9% · Atletico Madrid 3.9%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.VillarrealAtletico Madrid
2.450Expected goals · API-Football1.160
8Shots on target4
14Total Shots9
48%Ball Possession52%
5Corner Kicks7
3Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
3Goalkeeper Saves3
496Total passes517
431Passes accurate453
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primera DivisiónProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | +59 | 94 | — |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | +42 | 86 | — |
| 3 | Villarreal | 39 | +30 | 75 | — |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 39 | +14 | 69 | — |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | +11 | 60 | — |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | +5 | 54 | — |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | -6 | 51 | — |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | -3 | 50 | — |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | -9 | 49 | — |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | -2 | 46 | — |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | -12 | 46 | — |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | -15 | 45 | — |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | -8 | 43 | ↑ 2 |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | -12 | 43 | — |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | -14 | 43 | ↓ 2 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | -6 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | -10 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | -14 | 42 | ↓ 2 |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | -16 | 41 | — |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | -34 | 29 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Villarreal 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Atletico Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Atletico Madrid
4/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Atletico Madrid’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Villarreal
10 matchesResults4 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Atletico Madrid
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
GironaHome · La Liga1–0OsasunaAway · La Liga2–1Celta VigoHome · La Liga0–1ArsenalAway · UEFA Champions League0–1ValenciaAway · La Liga2–0ArsenalHome · UEFA Champions League1–1Athletic ClubHome · La Liga3–2ElcheAway · La Liga2–3Real SociedadHome · Copa del Rey2–2BarcelonaHome · UEFA Champions League1–2
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Villarreal at home with Atletico Madrid away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:37 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
La Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
VillarrealAtletico Madrid
36Matches played36
69Points earned66
21Wins20
1.9Goals scored / match1.7
1.2Goals conceded / match1.1
8Clean sheets13
5Failed to score5
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Villarreal at home with Atletico Madrid away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Villarreal
Confirmed formation4-4-2Marcelino
- 25
A. TenasG - 15
S. MourinoD - 6
P. NavarroD - 4
R. MarinD - 24
A. PedrazaD - 19
N. PepeM - 18
P. GueyeM - 10
D. ParejoM - 20
A. MoleiroM - 22
A. PerezF - 9
G. MikautadzeF
Substitutes (12)
1 · Luiz Junior
2 · L. Costa
23 · S. Cardona
5 · W. Kambwala
12 · R. Veiga
33 · P. Cabanes
38 · A. Diatta
11 · A. Gonzalez
17 · T. Buchanan
3 · A. Freeman
21 · T. Oluwaseyi
37 · C. Macia
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed formation4-3-3Diego Simeone
- 1
J. MussoG - 14
M. LlorenteD - 18
M. PubillD - 15
C. LengletD - 17
D. HanckoD - 10
A. BaenaM - 6
KokeM - 21
O. VargasM - 20
G. SimeoneF - 7
A. GriezmannF - 22
A. LookmanF
Substitutes (11)
31 · S. Esquivel
13 · J. Oblak
9 · A. Sorloth
3 · M. Ruggeri
32 · J. Bonar
29 · R. Belaid
40 · A. Puric
47 · J. Morcillo
34 · J. Diaz
37 · I. Luque
61 · M. Cubo
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Villarreal
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnau Tenas | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 33 | — |
| Santiago Mouriño | 90 | 7.7 | — | 0 | — | 75 | 2 |
| Pau Navarro | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 42 | 2 |
| Rafa Marín | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 47 | 3 |
| Alfonso Pedraza | 67 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 24 | 1 |
| Nicolas Pépé | 90 | 8.2 | — | 2 | 2 | 55 | — |
| Pape Gueye | 75 | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 49 | 2 |
| Dani Parejo | 66 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 52 | 3 |
| Alberto Moleiro | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 28 | — |
| Ayoze Pérez | 75 | 9.5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 23 | — |
| Georges Mikautadze | 89 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | — |
| Alassane Diatta | 24 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 21 | 1 |
| Sergi Cardona | 23 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 12 | — |
| Logan Costa | 15 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 14 | 1 |
| Pau Cabanes | 15 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Carlos Maciá | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Luiz Júnior | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Veiga | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willy Kambwala | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Freeman | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tajon Buchanan | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tani Oluwaseyi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alfon González | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Musso | 90 | 5.7 | — | 0 | — | 18 | — |
| Marcos Llorente | 90 | 5.3 | — | 0 | — | 57 | 1 |
| Marc Pubill | 45 | 6.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Clément Lenglet | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 57 | 5 |
| Dávid Hancko | 45 | 5.6 | — | 0 | — | 22 | — |
| Alex Baena | 61 | 5.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 38 | — |
| Koke | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 87 | — |
| Obed Vargas | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 38 | 3 |
| Giuliano Simeone | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Antoine Griezmann | 90 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 2 | 44 | — |
| Ademola Lookman | 61 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 22 | 2 |
| Matteo Ruggeri | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| Aleksa Purić | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Alexander Sørloth | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 6 | — |
| Javier Boñar | 29 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 16 | — |
| Javi Morcillo | 29 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 18 | — |
| Salvi Esquivel | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Oblak | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julio Díaz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Belaid | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iker Luque | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Cubo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
Snapshot from 24 May 2026, 00:14 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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