Atletico Madrid
3/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
1.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Atletico Madrid’s results
UEFA Champions LeagueSemi-finalsTHE MATCH CENTREAtletico Madrid vs Arsenal match centre
90′ · Live
1:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
J. Alvarez56′ (pen)
V. Gyokeres44′ (pen)
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate4.2%Atletico Madrid
Draw92.5%at full time
Current result estimate3.3%Arsenal
Another goal7.7%before full time
Next goal: Atletico Madrid 4.3% · no further goal 92.3% · Arsenal 3.4%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.Atletico MadridArsenal
2.220Expected goals · API-Football1.500
4Shots on target2
18Total Shots11
51%Ball Possession49%
6Corner Kicks1
6Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
—Red Cards—
1Goalkeeper Saves3
496Total passes473
414Passes accurate418
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
UEFA Champions LeagueProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | +19 | 25 | — |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 8 | +14 | 21 | — |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | +12 | 18 | — |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | +10 | 17 | — |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 8 | +8 | 16 | — |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 8 | +7 | 16 | — |
| 7 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 8 |  Manchester City | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 9 |  Real Madrid | 8 | +9 | 15 | — |
| 10 |  Inter | 8 | +8 | 15 | — |
| 11 |  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 13 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | +2 | 14 | ↑ 1 |
| 14 |  Juventus | 8 | +4 | 13 | ↓ 1 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 8 | 0 | 13 | — |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | -1 | 12 | — |
| 17 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | +2 | 11 | — |
| 18 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | -4 | 11 | — |
| 19 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 20 |  Galatasaray | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 21 |  Monaco | 8 | -6 | 10 | — |
| 22 |  Qarabag | 8 | -8 | 10 | — |
| 23 |  Bodo/Glimt | 8 | -1 | 9 | — |
| 24 |  Benfica | 8 | -2 | 9 | — |
| 25 |  Marseille | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 26 |  Pafos | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 27 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | -9 | 9 | — |
| 28 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 0 | 8 | — |
| 29 |  Athletic Club | 8 | -5 | 8 | — |
| 30 |  Napoli | 8 | -6 | 8 | — |
| 31 |  FC Copenhagen | 8 | -9 | 8 | — |
| 32 |  Ajax | 8 | -13 | 6 | — |
| 33 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | -11 | 4 | — |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | -14 | 3 | — |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | -13 | 1 | — |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | -15 | 1 | — |
Semi-finalsAtletico Madrid 1–1 Arsenal
→Current progressionLevel
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Atletico Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Arsenal 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Arsenal
4/10Wins
1.0Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Arsenal’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Atletico Madrid
10 matchesResults3 wins · 1 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game1.9
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Athletic ClubHome · La Liga3–2ElcheAway · La Liga2–3Real SociedadHome · Copa del Rey2–2BarcelonaHome · UEFA Champions League1–2SevillaAway · La Liga1–2BarcelonaAway · UEFA Champions League2–0BarcelonaHome · La Liga1–2Real MadridAway · La Liga2–3TottenhamAway · UEFA Champions League2–3GetafeHome · La Liga1–0
Arsenal
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.0
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
NewcastleHome · Premier League1–0Manchester CityAway · Premier League1–2Sporting CPHome · UEFA Champions League0–0BournemouthHome · Premier League1–2Sporting CPAway · UEFA Champions League1–0SouthamptonAway · FA Cup1–2Manchester CityHome · League Cup0–2Bayer LeverkusenHome · UEFA Champions League2–0EvertonHome · Premier League2–0Bayer LeverkusenAway · UEFA Champions League1–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Atletico Madrid at home with Arsenal away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:58 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Champions League · 2025/26 · all league matches
Atletico MadridArsenal
14Matches played12
23Points earned32
7Wins10
2.5Goals scored / match2.3
1.9Goals conceded / match0.4
1Clean sheets8
1Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Atletico Madrid at home with Arsenal away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2Diego Simeone
- 13
J. OblakG - 14
M. LlorenteD - 18
M. PubillD - 17
D. HanckoD - 3
M. RuggeriD - 20
G. SimeoneM - 6
KokeM - 5
J. CardosoM - 22
A. LookmanM - 7
A. GriezmannF - 19
J. AlvarezF
Substitutes (12)
31 · S. Esquivel
1 · J. Musso
9 · A. Sorloth
16 · N. Molina
21 · O. Vargas
32 · J. Bonar
4 · R. Mendoza
15 · C. Lenglet
24 · R. Le Normand
10 · A. Baena
11 · T. Almada
34 · J. Diaz
Arsenal
Confirmed formation4-3-3Mikel Arteta
- 1
D. RayaG - 4
B. WhiteD - 2
W. SalibaD - 6
GabrielD - 5
P. HincapieD - 8
M. OdegaardM - 41
D. RiceM - 36
M. ZubimendiM - 20
N. MaduekeF - 14
V. GyökeresF - 11
G. MartinelliF
Substitutes (12)
13 · K. Arrizabalaga
35 · T. Setford
9 · Gabriel Jesus
7 · B. Saka
49 · M. Lewis-Skelly
3 · C. Mosquera
56 · M. Dowman
89 · M. Salmon
16 · C. Norgaard
19 · L. Trossard
10 · E. Eze
33 · R. Calafiori
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Oblak | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 39 | — |
| Marcos Llorente | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 32 | 2 |
| Marc Pubill | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 38 | 2 |
| Dávid Hancko | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 67 | 2 |
| Matteo Ruggeri | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 45 | 5 |
| Giuliano Simeone | 45 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 2 |
| Koke | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 70 | 1 |
| Johnny Cardoso | 88 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 49 | 1 |
| Ademola Lookman | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 4 | 32 | 2 |
| Antoine Griezmann | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| Julián Alvarez | 77 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Robin Le Normand | 45 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 34 | 2 |
| Alex Baena | 13 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 6 | — |
| Nahuel Molina | 9 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Juan Musso | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Salvi Esquivel | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Clément Lenglet | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Boñar | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julio Díaz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Almada | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Obed Vargas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Sørloth | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Arsenal
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 27 | — |
| Ben White | 86 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 24 | 1 |
| William Saliba | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 62 | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 49 | — |
| Piero Hincapié | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 37 | 2 |
| Martin Ødegaard | 58 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 1 |
| Declan Rice | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 88 | 1 |
| Martín Zubimendi | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 51 | — |
| Noni Madueke | 68 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 22 | — |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 69 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 68 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 21 | 1 |
| Eberechi Eze | 32 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 20 | 1 |
| Bukayo Saka | 22 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 11 | — |
| Leandro Trossard | 22 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 12 | — |
| Gabriel Jesus | 21 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | 11 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tommy Setford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riccardo Calafiori | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marli Salmon | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Nørgaard | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Dowman | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Snapshot from 29 Apr 2026, 03:03 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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