Arsenal
4/10Wins
1.1Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Arsenal’s results
UEFA Champions LeagueSemi-finalsTHE MATCH CENTREArsenal vs Atletico Madrid match centre
90′ · Live
1:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
B. Saka44′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate96.0%Arsenal
Draw3.9%at full time
Current result estimate0.1%Atletico Madrid
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Arsenal 4.0% · no further goal 91.9% · Atletico Madrid 4.1%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.ArsenalAtletico Madrid
1.580Expected goals · API-Football0.530
2Shots on target2
13Total Shots9
53%Ball Possession47%
5Corner Kicks2
10Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves1
434Total passes376
374Passes accurate316
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
UEFA Champions LeagueProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | +20 | 27 | — |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 8 | +14 | 21 | — |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | +12 | 18 | — |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | +10 | 17 | — |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 8 | +8 | 16 | — |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 8 | +7 | 16 | — |
| 7 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 8 |  Manchester City | 8 | +6 | 16 | — |
| 9 |  Real Madrid | 8 | +9 | 15 | — |
| 10 |  Inter | 8 | +8 | 15 | — |
| 11 |  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | +10 | 14 | — |
| 13 |  Juventus | 8 | +4 | 13 | — |
| 14 |  Atletico Madrid | 9 | +1 | 13 | — |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 8 | 0 | 13 | — |
| 16 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | -1 | 12 | — |
| 17 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | +2 | 11 | — |
| 18 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | -4 | 11 | — |
| 19 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 20 |  Galatasaray | 8 | -2 | 10 | — |
| 21 |  Monaco | 8 | -6 | 10 | — |
| 22 |  Qarabag | 8 | -8 | 10 | — |
| 23 |  Bodo/Glimt | 8 | -1 | 9 | — |
| 24 |  Benfica | 8 | -2 | 9 | — |
| 25 |  Marseille | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 26 |  Pafos | 8 | -3 | 9 | — |
| 27 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | -9 | 9 | — |
| 28 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 0 | 8 | — |
| 29 |  Athletic Club | 8 | -5 | 8 | — |
| 30 |  Napoli | 8 | -6 | 8 | — |
| 31 |  FC Copenhagen | 8 | -9 | 8 | — |
| 32 |  Ajax | 8 | -13 | 6 | — |
| 33 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | -11 | 4 | — |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | -14 | 3 | — |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | -13 | 1 | — |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | -15 | 1 | — |
Semi-finalsArsenal 1–0 Atletico Madrid
→Current progressionArsenal
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Arsenal 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Atletico Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Atletico Madrid
3/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Atletico Madrid’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Arsenal
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.1
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
FulhamHome · Premier League3–0Atletico MadridAway · UEFA Champions League1–1NewcastleHome · Premier League1–0Manchester CityAway · Premier League1–2Sporting CPHome · UEFA Champions League0–0BournemouthHome · Premier League1–2Sporting CPAway · UEFA Champions League1–0SouthamptonAway · FA Cup1–2Manchester CityHome · League Cup0–2Bayer LeverkusenHome · UEFA Champions League2–0
Atletico Madrid
10 matchesResults3 wins · 2 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
ValenciaAway · La Liga2–0ArsenalHome · UEFA Champions League1–1Athletic ClubHome · La Liga3–2ElcheAway · La Liga2–3Real SociedadHome · Copa del Rey2–2BarcelonaHome · UEFA Champions League1–2SevillaAway · La Liga1–2BarcelonaAway · UEFA Champions League2–0BarcelonaHome · La Liga1–2Real MadridAway · La Liga2–3
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Arsenal at home with Atletico Madrid away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:58 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Champions League · 2025/26 · all league matches
ArsenalAtletico Madrid
12Matches played14
32Points earned23
10Wins7
2.3Goals scored / match2.5
0.4Goals conceded / match1.9
8Clean sheets1
1Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Arsenal at home with Atletico Madrid away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Arsenal
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Mikel Arteta
- 1
D. RayaG - 4
B. WhiteD - 2
W. SalibaD - 6
GabrielD - 33
R. CalafioriD - 41
D. RiceM - 49
M. Lewis-SkellyM - 7
B. SakaM - 10
E. EzeM - 19
L. TrossardM - 14
V. GyökeresF
Substitutes (12)
13 · K. Arrizabalaga
35 · T. Setford
8 · M. Odegaard
9 · Gabriel Jesus
29 · K. Havertz
20 · N. Madueke
11 · G. Martinelli
5 · P. Hincapie
36 · M. Zubimendi
3 · C. Mosquera
56 · M. Dowman
16 · C. Norgaard
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2Diego Simeone
- 13
J. OblakG - 18
M. PubillD - 24
R. Le NormandD - 17
D. HanckoD - 3
M. RuggeriD - 20
G. SimeoneM - 14
M. LlorenteM - 6
KokeM - 22
A. LookmanM - 7
A. GriezmannF - 19
J. AlvarezF
Substitutes (12)
1 · J. Musso
9 · A. Sorloth
2 · J. M. Gimenez
16 · N. Molina
21 · O. Vargas
32 · J. Bonar
4 · R. Mendoza
15 · C. Lenglet
10 · A. Baena
11 · T. Almada
5 · J. Cardoso
34 · J. Diaz
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Arsenal
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 31 | — |
| Ben White | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 |
| William Saliba | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 63 | 2 |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 46 | 1 |
| Riccardo Calafiori | 58 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Declan Rice | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 62 | 4 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | 74 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 49 | — |
| Bukayo Saka | 58 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Eberechi Eze | 59 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| Leandro Trossard | 83 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 31 | 3 |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 12 | — |
| Piero Hincapié | 32 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 9 | 1 |
| Noni Madueke | 32 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 6 | 1 |
| Martin Ødegaard | 31 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Martín Zubimendi | 16 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 8 | 1 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 13 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tommy Setford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Nørgaard | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Dowman | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Jesus | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kai Havertz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Oblak | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 34 | — |
| Marc Pubill | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 24 | 3 |
| Robin Le Normand | 57 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 20 | 1 |
| Dávid Hancko | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 58 | 1 |
| Matteo Ruggeri | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 38 | 4 |
| Giuliano Simeone | 57 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Marcos Llorente | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 24 | 4 |
| Koke | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 58 | 2 |
| Ademola Lookman | 57 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 13 | — |
| Antoine Griezmann | 66 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 |
| Julián Alvarez | 66 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | — |
| Nahuel Molina | 33 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| Johnny Cardoso | 33 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 10 | — |
| Alexander Sørloth | 33 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 10 | — |
| Alex Baena | 24 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Thiago Almada | 24 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 10 | — |
| Juan Musso | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José María Giménez | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Clément Lenglet | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Boñar | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julio Díaz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Obed Vargas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Arsenal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
Snapshot from 5 May 2026, 06:06 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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