Nacional
1/10Wins
0.5Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 7 losses in that sample. At home, 2 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect Nacional’s results
Primeira LigaMatchweek 30THE MATCH CENTRENacional vs Alverca match centre
90′ · Live
1:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
J. Ramirez67′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate96.0%Nacional
Draw3.9%at full time
Current result estimate0.1%Alverca
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Nacional 4.0% · no further goal 91.9% · Alverca 4.1%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.NacionalAlverca
1.030Expected goals · API-Football0.470
6Shots on target4
9Total Shots7
50%Ball Possession50%
4Corner Kicks8
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
4Goalkeeper Saves5
391Total passes372
318Passes accurate303
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primeira LigaProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | +48 | 88 | — |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | +65 | 82 | — |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | +49 | 80 | — |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | +28 | 59 | — |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | +13 | 56 | — |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | +9 | 50 | — |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | -12 | 43 | — |
| 8 |  Guimaraes | 34 | -12 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 9 |  Arouca | 34 | -17 | 42 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | -3 | 39 | — |
| 11 |  Alverca | 35 | -18 | 39 | — |
| 12 | Nacional | 35 | -7 | 37 | ↑ 2 |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 34 | -9 | 36 | — |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 34 | -22 | 36 | ↓ 2 |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | -18 | 30 | — |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | -26 | 30 | — |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | -28 | 28 | — |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | -40 | 21 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Nacional 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Alverca 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Alverca
2/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect Alverca’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Nacional
10 matchesResults1 wins · 2 draws · 7 losses
Goals scored per game0.5
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
BenficaAway · Primeira Liga0–2EstrelaHome · Primeira Liga2–0FamalicaoAway · Primeira Liga0–1EstorilHome · Primeira Liga0–1MoreirenseAway · Primeira Liga1–1SC BragaHome · Primeira Liga1–2AroucaAway · Primeira Liga0–3FC PortoHome · Primeira Liga0–1Casa PiaHome · Primeira Liga0–0Sporting CPAway · Primeira Liga1–2
Alverca
10 matchesResults2 wins · 6 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored9 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Casa PiaHome · Primeira Liga3–1Rio AveAway · Primeira Liga2–1Sporting CPHome · Primeira Liga1–4GIL VicenteAway · Primeira Liga2–2AVSHome · Primeira Liga0–0GuimaraesAway · Primeira Liga1–1Santa ClaraHome · Primeira Liga1–1TondelaAway · Primeira Liga1–1BenficaAway · Primeira Liga1–2EstrelaHome · Primeira Liga1–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Nacional at home with Alverca away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 05:14 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primeira Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
NacionalAlverca
29Matches played29
25Points earned35
6Wins9
1.1Goals scored / match1.1
1.4Goals conceded / match1.6
5Clean sheets6
10Failed to score7
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Nacional at home with Alverca away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Nacional
Confirmed formation4-3-3Tiago Margarido
- 1
KaiqueG - 16
Alan NúñezD - 33
Francisco GonçalvesD - 38
Ze VitorD - 5
Jose GomesD - 10
Daniel JúniorM - 15
Chiheb LabidiM - 28
LizieroM - 27
Gabriel VeronF - 9
Jesús RamírezF - 11
Paulinho BóiaF
Substitutes (9)
50 · Kevyn
2 · João Aurélio
7 · Witi
22 · Filipe Soares
26 · Joel Silva
6 · Matheus Dias
30 · Martim Gustavo Watts
19 · Lucas Joao
99 · Pablo
Alverca
Confirmed formation3-4-3Custodio
- 31
Matheus MendesG - 4
Kaiky NavesD - 5
Sergi GomezD - 33
Bastien MeupiyouD - 2
Nabil TouaiziM - 26
RhaldneyM - 18
LincolnM - 12
Isaac JamesM - 20
FigueiredoF - 91
Sandro LimaF - 10
ChiquinhoF
Substitutes (9)
1 · Mateus Oliveira
82 · Diogo Spencer
14 · Steven Baseya
6 · Davy Gui
35 · Zakaria Kassary
17 · Vasco Moreira
9 · Marko Milovanović
11 · Cédric Nuozzi
19 · Mathis Clairicia
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Nacional
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaique | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | — | 30 | — |
| Alan Núñez | 97 | 7.6 | — | — | — | 36 | 2 |
| Francisco Gonçalves | 97 | 7.6 | — | — | — | 39 | 2 |
| Ze Vitor | 97 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 4 |
| Jose Gomes | 97 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Daniel Júnior | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 2 |
| Chiheb Labidi | 97 | 6.6 | — | — | — | 54 | 2 |
| Liziero | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 5 |
| Gabriel Veron | 87 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 4 |
| Jesús Ramírez | 93 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 19 | — |
| Paulinho Bóia | 97 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Filipe Soares | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | — | 17 | — |
| Matheus Dias | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Aurélio | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 |
| Pablo | 4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Kevyn | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Witi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joel Silva | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martim Gustavo Watts | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Joao | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alverca
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Mendes | 97 | 7.0 | — | — | — | 19 | — |
| Kaiky Naves | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | 62 | 2 |
| Sergi Gomez | 97 | 6.0 | — | — | — | 34 | — |
| Bastien Meupiyou | 97 | 6.7 | — | — | — | 54 | — |
| Nabil Touaizi | 97 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 33 | — |
| Rhaldney | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 24 | — |
| Lincoln | 75 | 6.9 | — | — | — | 43 | 1 |
| Isaac James | 97 | 6.2 | — | — | — | 27 | 1 |
| Figueiredo | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | 22 | — |
| Sandro Lima | 75 | 6.0 | — | — | — | 16 | — |
| Chiquinho | 88 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 15 | — |
| Davy Gui | 52 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 2 |
| Vasco Moreira | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | 14 | — |
| Marko Milovanović | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Mathis Clairicia | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Zakaria Kassary | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | 5 | — |
| Mateus Oliveira | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Spencer | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Steven Baseya | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cédric Nuozzi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Nacional | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
Snapshot from 17 Apr 2026, 18:53 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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