Guimaraes
3/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Guimaraes’s results
Primeira LigaMatchweek 33THE MATCH CENTREGuimaraes vs Casa Pia match centre
90′ · Live
0:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
G. Larrazabal86′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%Guimaraes
Draw3.9%at full time
Current result estimate96.0%Casa Pia
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Guimaraes 4.1% · no further goal 91.9% · Casa Pia 4.0%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.GuimaraesCasa Pia
0.940Expected goals · API-Football0.880
2Shots on target5
15Total Shots11
71%Ball Possession29%
5Corner Kicks4
11Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
4Goalkeeper Saves3
488Total passes204
408Passes accurate125
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primeira LigaProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | +48 | 88 | — |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | +65 | 82 | — |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | +49 | 80 | — |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | +28 | 59 | — |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | +13 | 56 | — |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | +9 | 50 | — |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | -12 | 43 | — |
| 8 | Guimaraes | 35 | -13 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 9 |  Arouca | 34 | -17 | 42 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | -3 | 39 | — |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | -17 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Santa Clara | 34 | -9 | 36 | ↑ 1 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 34 | -22 | 36 | ↓ 1 |
| 14 |  Nacional | 34 | -8 | 34 | — |
| 15 |  Casa Pia | 35 | -25 | 33 | ↑ 1 |
| 16 |  Estrela | 34 | -18 | 30 | ↓ 1 |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | -28 | 28 | — |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | -40 | 21 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Guimaraes 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Casa Pia 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Casa Pia
0/10Wins
0.4Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 8 available matches.
Inspect Casa Pia’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Guimaraes
10 matchesResults3 wins · 2 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Sporting CPAway · Primeira Liga1–5Rio AveHome · Primeira Liga2–0GIL VicenteAway · Primeira Liga1–0AVSAway · Primeira Liga1–1TondelaHome · Primeira Liga5–0BenficaAway · Primeira Liga0–3FamalicaoHome · Primeira Liga1–2Santa ClaraAway · Primeira Liga0–2AlvercaHome · Primeira Liga1–1SC BragaAway · Primeira Liga2–3
Casa Pia
10 matchesResults0 wins · 4 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game0.4
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
TondelaHome · Primeira Liga0–1GIL VicenteAway · Primeira Liga1–2SC BragaHome · Primeira Liga0–1Santa ClaraHome · Primeira Liga0–0AlvercaAway · Primeira Liga1–3BenficaHome · Primeira Liga1–1EstrelaAway · Primeira Liga0–4EstorilAway · Primeira Liga0–0MoreirenseHome · Primeira Liga1–1FamalicaoAway · Primeira Liga0–2
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Guimaraes at home with Casa Pia away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:04 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primeira Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
GuimaraesCasa Pia
31Matches played31
42Points earned26
12Wins5
1.2Goals scored / match0.9
1.4Goals conceded / match1.8
10Clean sheets6
10Failed to score14
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Guimaraes at home with Casa Pia away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Guimaraes
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Gil Lameiras
- 27
Charles SilvaG - 66
T. StrataD - 4
O. Rivas ViondiD - 26
R. AbascalD - 82
F. DiasD - 30
G. NogueiraM - 16
BeniM - 88
M. NogueiraM - 20
SamuM - 48
N. SavioloM - 11
GustavoF
Substitutes (9)
25 · J. Castillo
13 · J. I. Mendes
18 · T. Arcanjo
90 · A. Ndoye
3 · M. Nobrega
2 · Maga
80 · R. Rocha
19 · O. Camara
50 · Zeega
Casa Pia
Confirmed formation3-4-3Alvaro Pacheco
- 1
P. SequeiraG - 4
J. GoulartD - 3
KalyD - 43
D. SousaD - 19
K. PrietoM - 80
L. OforiM - 42
S. PerezM - 75
P. RosasM - 72
G. LarrazabalF - 10
D. LivramentoF - 11
J. MarquesF
Substitutes (9)
95 · I. Mandic
6 · J. Fonte
32 · Kiki
7 · K. Nsona
21 · T. Morais
13 · K. Osundina
5 · A. Conte
99 · C. Mendes
59 · A. Dafe
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Guimaraes
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 1 |
| Tony Strata | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 53 | 1 |
| Óscar Rivas | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 64 | 2 |
| Rodrigo Abascal | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 65 | 1 |
| Francisco Dias | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 54 | 3 |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | 60 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 22 | 1 |
| Beni Mukendi | 90 | 7.7 | — | 0 | — | 78 | 5 |
| Miguel Nogueira | 60 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 20 | — |
| Samu | 81 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 43 | 2 |
| Noah Saviolo | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | — |
| Gustavo Silva | 60 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 9 | — |
| Oumar Camara | 30 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 13 | — |
| Martim Guedes | 30 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 2 | 12 | — |
| Telmo Arcanjo | 30 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Alioune Ndoye | 9 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Juan Castillo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Nóbrega | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Maga | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Mendes | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rica Rocha | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Casa Pia
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sequeira | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 26 | — |
| João Goulart | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 20 | — |
| Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira | 90 | 8.2 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 2 |
| David Sousa | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 18 | 2 |
| Kevin Prieto | 74 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 3 |
| Lawrence Ofori | 45 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 11 | — |
| Sebastián Pérez | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 31 | 2 |
| Pedro Rosas | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 1 |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | 89 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | — |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | 69 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 3 | 13 | — |
| Joao Marques | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | 19 | 2 |
| Oluwakorede Osundina | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 5 | 1 |
| Claudio Mendes | 20 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Abdu Conté | 16 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | — | — |
| José Fonte | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | — | 1 |
| Abdu Dafe | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Ivan Mandić | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kelian Nsona | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Morais | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kiki Silva | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Guimaraes | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
Snapshot from 9 May 2026, 20:42 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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