Estrela
1/10Wins
0.7Goals / game
2.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At home, 1 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Estrela’s results
Primeira LigaMatchweek 27THE MATCH CENTREEstrela vs Casa Pia match centre
90′ · Live
4:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Rodrigo Pinho12′ (pen)
A. Marcus37′
Rodrigo Pinho45+3′
G. Doue76′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate100.0%Estrela
Draw0.0%at full time
Current result estimate0.0%Casa Pia
Another goal8.0%before full time
Next goal: Estrela 4.7% · no further goal 92.0% · Casa Pia 3.4%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.EstrelaCasa Pia
4.400Expected goals · API-Football0.650
8Shots on target2
23Total Shots8
52%Ball Possession48%
6Corner Kicks1
18Fouls19
3Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves4
387Total passes347
310Passes accurate268
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primeira LigaProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | +48 | 88 | — |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | +65 | 82 | — |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | +49 | 80 | — |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | +28 | 59 | — |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | +13 | 56 | — |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | +9 | 50 | — |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | -12 | 43 | — |
| 8 |  Guimaraes | 34 | -12 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 9 |  Arouca | 34 | -17 | 42 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | -3 | 39 | — |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | -17 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Santa Clara | 34 | -9 | 36 | ↑ 1 |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 34 | -22 | 36 | ↓ 1 |
| 14 |  Nacional | 34 | -8 | 34 | — |
| 15 | Estrela | 35 | -14 | 33 | — |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 35 | -30 | 30 | — |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | -28 | 28 | — |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | -40 | 21 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Estrela 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Casa Pia 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Casa Pia
3/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Casa Pia’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Estrela
10 matchesResults1 wins · 3 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game0.7
Goals conceded per game2.0
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Rio AveAway · Primeira Liga1–2GIL VicenteHome · Primeira Liga2–2AVSAway · Primeira Liga0–0TondelaHome · Primeira Liga0–2GuimaraesAway · Primeira Liga1–2Santa ClaraHome · Primeira Liga1–0AlvercaAway · Primeira Liga1–1BenficaAway · Primeira Liga0–4EstorilHome · Primeira Liga0–5Rio AveHome · Primeira Liga1–2
Casa Pia
10 matchesResults3 wins · 5 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
EstorilAway · Primeira Liga0–0MoreirenseHome · Primeira Liga1–1FamalicaoAway · Primeira Liga0–2AroucaHome · Primeira Liga3–2NacionalAway · Primeira Liga0–0FC PortoHome · Primeira Liga2–1AVSHome · Primeira Liga3–3Sporting CPAway · Primeira Liga0–3AnçãAway · Taça de Portugal3–0EstorilHome · Primeira Liga2–2
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Estrela at home with Casa Pia away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:30 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primeira Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
EstrelaCasa Pia
26Matches played25
25Points earned24
5Wins5
1.1Goals scored / match1.0
1.7Goals conceded / match1.7
6Clean sheets5
11Failed to score11
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Estrela at home with Casa Pia away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Estrela
Confirmed formation4-3-3Joao Nuno
- 40
R. RibeiroG - 21
M. ScholzeD - 30
Luan PatrickD - 14
Bernardo SchappoD - 24
B. LangaD - 39
G. DoueM - 6
K. JanssonM - 8
RobinhoM - 99
A. MarcusF - 9
Rodrigo PinhoF - 10
I. StoicaF
Substitutes (9)
22 · D. Grilo
20 · S. van Hooijdonk
7 · L. Antonetti
2 · Y. Kalley
28 · T. Moustier
63 · A. Sola
83 · Otavio
11 · Jovane
18 · J. Meireles
Casa Pia
Confirmed formation3-4-3Alvaro Pacheco
- 1
P. SequeiraG - 4
J. GoulartD - 3
KalyD - 18
A. GeraldesD - 72
G. LarrazabalM - 42
S. PerezM - 8
R. BritoM - 5
A. ConteM - 29
J. LivolantF - 90
CassianoF - 10
D. LivramentoF
Substitutes (9)
95 · I. Mandic
6 · J. Fonte
7 · K. Nsona
75 · P. Rosas
21 · T. Morais
13 · K. Osundina
99 · C. Mendes
24 · I. Mohamed
11 · J. Marques
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Estrela
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Ribeiro | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 20 | — |
| Max Scholze | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 1 |
| Luan Patrick | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 46 | 2 |
| Bernardo Schappo | 83 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 41 | — |
| Bruno Langa | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 33 | 1 |
| Eddy Doué | 83 | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 47 | 4 |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 37 | 2 |
| Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho | 68 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 36 | — |
| Abraham Marcus | 90 | 10.0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Rodrigo Pinho | 67 | 8.5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| Ianis Stoica | 75 | 7.7 | — | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Jovane Cabral | 23 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 2 | 14 | — |
| Alex Sola | 22 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 23 | — |
| Jorge Meireles | 15 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 11 | — |
| Otavio | 11 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 14 | — |
| Tom Moustier | 11 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 6 | — |
| David Grilo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yahya Kalley | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leandro Antonetti | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Casa Pia
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sequeira | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| João Goulart | 90 | 5.5 | — | 0 | — | 43 | 1 |
| Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira | 39 | 5.3 | — | 0 | — | 13 | — |
| André Geraldes | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 51 | 1 |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 28 | — |
| Sebastián Pérez | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 39 | 1 |
| Rafael Brito | 57 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 17 | — |
| Abdu Conté | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 31 | 3 |
| Jérémy Livolant | 77 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 19 | 2 |
| Cassiano | 57 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 7 | 4 |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | 39 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| José Fonte | 51 | 5.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 27 | — |
| Tiago Morais | 51 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Iyad Mohamed | 33 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Joao Marques | 33 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 12 | 1 |
| Claudio Mendes | 13 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ivan Mandić | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rosas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kelian Nsona | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oluwakorede Osundina | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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