M. BerishaLacking Match Fitness
Reported out
Serie AMatchweek 5THE MATCH CENTREAC Milan vs Lecce match centre
Full time
3:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
C. Pulisic14′
A. Rabiot61′
D. Moreira73′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Out of date · Calculated 20 Sep 17:02 UK.
Odds updated 20 Sep 19:00 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
AC MilanLecce
1.930Expected goals · API-Football0.170
4Shots on target3
10Total Shots6
70%Ball Possession30%
2Corner Kicks3
6Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
3Goalkeeper Saves1
680Total passes285
621Passes accurate232
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
AC Milan 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Lecce 3 reported
O. GandelmanInactive
Reported out
W. GeubbelsAnkle Injury
Reported outFetched 20 Sep, 10:44 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
AC Milan
3/10Wins
1.5Goals / game
1.6Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect AC Milan’s resultsLecce
5/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Lecce’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
AC Milan
10 matchesResults3 wins · 4 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game1.6
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Lecce
10 matchesResults5 wins · 1 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
MonzaHome · Serie A3–2CagliariAway · Serie A0–1AS RomaHome · Serie A0–4VeneziaAway · Serie A2–0PalermoAway · Coppa Italia0–2SS MonopoliHome · Friendlies Clubs1–0BistricaHome · Friendlies Clubs5–2Istra 1961Home · Friendlies Clubs2–2FC Politehnica TimisoaraHome · Friendlies Clubs0–1Szombathelyi HaladasAway · Friendlies Clubs1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare AC Milan at home with Lecce away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 09:46 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Serie A · 2026/27 · all league matches
AC MilanLecce
4Matches played4
8Points earned6
2Wins2
1.8Goals scored / match1.3
1.0Goals conceded / match1.8
1Clean sheets1
0Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares AC Milan at home with Lecce away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
5 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
AC Milan
5wins5MEETINGS
Lecce
0winsSep 2024 – Jan 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
AC Milan
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Ruben Amorim
- 16
Mike MaignanG - 34
Mario GilaD - 5
Koni De WinterD - 31
Strahinja PavlovićD - 21
Samuel ChukwuezeM - 14
Luka ModrićM - 12
Adrien RabiotM - 2
Pervis EstupiñánM - 11
Christian PulišićF - 56
Alexis SaelemaekersF - 9
Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes (15)
96 · Lorenzo Torriani
1 · Pietro Terracciano
13 · Sankhoun Diawara
42 · Filippo Terracciano
46 · Matteo Gabbia
23 · Fikayo Tomori
80 · Yunus Musah
22 · Diego Moreira
28 · Christian Comotto
33 · Davide Bartesaghi
30 · Ardon Jashari
20 · Omari Hutchinson
8 · Ruben Loftus-Cheek
73 · Francesco Camarda
70 · Alphadjo Cissè
Lecce
Confirmed formation4-3-3Eusebio Di Francesco
- 30
Wladimiro FalconeG - 17
Danilo VeigaD - 4
Kialonda GasparD - 5
Jamil SiebertD - 25
Antonino GalloD - 29
Lassana CoulibalyM - 20
Ivan IlićM - 14
Youssef MalehM - 50
Santiago PierottiF - 9
Nikola ŠtulićF - 99
Joël MonteiroF
Substitutes (13)
32 · Alexandru Borbei
1 · Marco Bleve
31 · Elijah Scott
18 · Gaby Jean
2 · Ali Dembélé
3 · Corrie Ndaba
79 · Oumar Ngom
28 · Olaf Gorter
8 · Sadik Fofana
77 · Mohamed Kaba
22 · Paco Esteban
7 · Amar Fatah
11 · Konan N'Dri
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
AC Milan
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Maignan | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 36 | — |
| Mario Gila | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 67 | 1 |
| Koni De Winter | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 67 | 1 |
| Strahinja Pavlović | 90 | 8.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 106 | 1 |
| Samuel Chukwueze | 87 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 36 | 3 |
| Luka Modrić | 76 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 93 | 2 |
| Adrien Rabiot | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 76 | 1 |
| Pervis Estupiñán | 76 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 58 | — |
| Christian Pulišić | 69 | 8.9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 46 | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | 69 | 7.7 | — | 0 | — | 55 | 5 |
| Gonçalo Ramos | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | 34 | — |
| Diego Moreira | 21 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 21 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 4 | 1 |
| Yunus Musah | 14 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | 14 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 7 | — |
| Francesco Camarda | 3 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Torriani | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pietro Terracciano | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sankhoun Diawara | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filippo Terracciano | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Gabbia | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fikayo Tomori | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Comotto | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ardon Jashari | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alphadjo Cissè | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lecce
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wladimiro Falcone | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 31 | 1 |
| Danilo Veiga | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 5 |
| Kialonda Gaspar | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 46 | 3 |
| Jamil Siebert | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 36 | 6 |
| Antonino Gallo | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 25 | 3 |
| Santiago Pierotti | 82 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 14 | 1 |
| Ivan Ilić | 70 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 31 | 1 |
| Youssef Maleh | 70 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 18 | 3 |
| Lassana Coulibaly | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 16 | — |
| Nikola Štulić | 45 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 10 | 1 |
| Joël Monteiro | 70 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 2 |
| Paco Esteban | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 4 | 1 |
| Oumar Ngom | 20 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Mohamed Kaba | 20 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 14 | 1 |
| Amar Fatah | 20 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 5 | — |
| Konan N'Dri | 8 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Alexandru Borbei | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Bleve | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Elijah Scott | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaby Jean | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Dembélé | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Corrie Ndaba | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Olaf Gorter | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sadik Fofana | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Serie A table
Current standings · Serie A. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 | AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 8 |  Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 9 |  Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | DWLLW |
| 10 |  Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | LLLWW |
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 | LWLLW |
| 13 |  Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | DLWLL |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 16 |  Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | DWLLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 11.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 6.15 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
Snapshot from 20 Sep 2026, 19:00 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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