FSV Mainz 05
6/10Wins
1.6Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect FSV Mainz 05’s results
BundesligaMatchweek 33THE MATCH CENTREFSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin match centre
90′ · Live
1:3
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
S. Becker48′
A. Ilic38′
O. Burke88′
J. Juranovic90+1′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.0%FSV Mainz 05
Draw0.1%at full time
Current result estimate99.9%Union Berlin
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: FSV Mainz 05 3.8% · no further goal 91.9% · Union Berlin 4.2%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
1.570Expected goals · API-Football2.680
3Shots on target8
13Total Shots14
55%Ball Possession45%
7Corner Kicks8
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
6Goalkeeper Saves2
450Total passes367
381Passes accurate297
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Bundesliga Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | +86 | 89 | — |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | +36 | 73 | — |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 34 | +19 | 65 | — |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | +22 | 62 | — |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | +13 | 61 | — |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | +21 | 59 | — |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | -6 | 47 | — |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | -4 | 44 | — |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | -16 | 43 | — |
| 10 |  Union Berlin | 35 | -12 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 11 | FSV Mainz 05 | 35 | -11 | 40 | ↓ 1 |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | -11 | 38 | — |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | -14 | 38 | — |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | -14 | 32 | — |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | -23 | 32 | — |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | -24 | 29 | — |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
FSV Mainz 05 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Union Berlin 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Union Berlin
2/10Wins
0.9Goals / game
2.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Union Berlin’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
FSV Mainz 05
10 matchesResults6 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
FC St. PauliAway · Bundesliga2–1Bayern MünchenHome · Bundesliga3–4Borussia MönchengladbachAway · Bundesliga1–1StrasbourgAway · UEFA Europa Conference League0–4SC FreiburgHome · Bundesliga0–1StrasbourgHome · UEFA Europa Conference League2–01899 HoffenheimAway · Bundesliga2–1Eintracht FrankfurtHome · Bundesliga2–1Sigma OlomoucHome · UEFA Europa Conference League2–0Werder BremenAway · Bundesliga2–0
Union Berlin
10 matchesResults2 wins · 2 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game0.9
Goals conceded per game2.0
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
1. FC KölnHome · Bundesliga2–2RB LeipzigAway · Bundesliga1–3VfL WolfsburgHome · Bundesliga1–21. FC HeidenheimAway · Bundesliga1–3FC St. PauliHome · Bundesliga1–1Bayern MünchenAway · Bundesliga0–4SC FreiburgAway · Bundesliga1–0Werder BremenHome · Bundesliga1–4Borussia MönchengladbachAway · Bundesliga0–1Bayer LeverkusenHome · Bundesliga1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare FSV Mainz 05 at home with Union Berlin away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:50 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Bundesliga · 2025/26 · all league matches
FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
31Matches played32
34Points earned33
8Wins8
1.3Goals scored / match1.2
1.6Goals conceded / match1.8
3Clean sheets6
10Failed to score8
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares FSV Mainz 05 at home with Union Berlin away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed formation3-5-2Urs Fischer
- 27
R. ZentnerG - 21
D. da CostaD - 4
S. PoschD - 31
D. KohrD - 19
A. CaciM - 8
P. NebelM - 6
K. SanoM - 10
N. AmiriM - 2
P. MweneM - 20
P. TietzF - 23
S. BeckerF
Substitutes (9)
33 · D. Batz
30 · S. Widmer
15 · L. Maloney
11 · A. Sieb
24 · S. Kawasaki
7 · Lee Jae-Sung
22 · N. Veratschnig
44 · N. Weiper
48 · K. Potulski
Union Berlin
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Marie-Louise Eta
- 25
C. KlausG - 28
C. TrimmelD - 5
D. DoekhiD - 4
D. LeiteD - 15
T. RotheD - 8
R. KhediraM - 6
A. KemleinM - 7
O. BurkeM - 10
I. AnsahM - 9
L. BurcuM - 23
A. IlicF
Substitutes (9)
48 · T. Wisbereit
33 · A. Kral
18 · J. Juranovic
21 · T. Skarke
13 · A. Schafer
34 · S. Nsoki
39 · D. Kohn
11 · Jeong Woo-Yeong
14 · L. Querfeld
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Zentner | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| Danny da Costa | 16 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Stefan Posch | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 53 | — |
| Dominik Kohr | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 58 | — |
| Anthony Caci | 70 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 41 | 1 |
| Paul Nebel | 70 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 37 | 3 |
| Kaishu Sano | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Nadiem Amiri | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 46 | — |
| Phillipp Mwene | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 1 |
| Phillip Tietz | 81 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 21 | — |
| Sheraldo Becker | 81 | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | — |
| Kacper Potulski | 74 | 5.3 | — | 0 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | 20 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 11 | 2 |
| Jae-sung Lee | 20 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 10 | — |
| Nelson Weiper | 9 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Armindo Sieb | 9 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Daniel Batz | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sota Kawasaki | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lennard Maloney | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Silvan Widmer | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Klaus | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 27 | — |
| Christopher Trimmel | 81 | 8.9 | — | 0 | — | 38 | 3 |
| Danilho Doekhi | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Diogo Leite | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 55 | 2 |
| Tom Alexander Rothe | 60 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Rani Khedira | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 1 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 60 | 1 |
| Oliver Burke | 88 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2 |
| Ilyas Ansah | 60 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Livan Burcu | 59 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 19 | — |
| Andrej Ilić | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | — |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong | 31 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| András Schäfer | 30 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 11 | — |
| Derrick Köhn | 30 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 14 | — |
| Josip Juranović | 9 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | — |
| Tim Skarke | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Tom Wisbereit | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leopold Querfeld | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stanley Nsoki | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Král | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
Snapshot from 9 May 2026, 20:25 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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