FSV Mainz 05
5/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 9 available matches.
Inspect FSV Mainz 05’s results
BundesligaMatchweek 31THE MATCH CENTREFSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München match centre
90′ · Live
3:4
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
D. Kohr15′
P. Nebel29′
S. Becker45+2′
N. Jackson53′
M. Olise73′
J. Musiala80′
H. Kane83′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%FSV Mainz 05
Draw4.3%at full time
Current result estimate95.6%Bayern München
Another goal8.2%before full time
Next goal: FSV Mainz 05 4.5% · no further goal 91.8% · Bayern München 3.7%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
2.400Expected goals · API-Football1.970
8Shots on target6
17Total Shots11
27%Ball Possession73%
2Corner Kicks4
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves5
213Total passes585
162Passes accurate531
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Bundesliga Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 35 | +87 | 92 | — |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | +36 | 73 | — |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 34 | +19 | 65 | — |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | +22 | 62 | — |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | +13 | 61 | — |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | +21 | 59 | — |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | -6 | 47 | — |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | -4 | 44 | — |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | -16 | 43 | — |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 35 | -10 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | -14 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | -11 | 38 | — |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | -14 | 38 | — |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | -14 | 32 | — |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | -23 | 32 | — |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | -24 | 29 | — |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | -31 | 26 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
FSV Mainz 05 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Bayern München 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Bayern München
9/10Wins
3.5Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At away venues, 8 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Bayern München’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
FSV Mainz 05
10 matchesResults5 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Borussia MönchengladbachAway · Bundesliga1–1StrasbourgAway · UEFA Europa Conference League0–4SC FreiburgHome · Bundesliga0–1StrasbourgHome · UEFA Europa Conference League2–01899 HoffenheimAway · Bundesliga2–1Eintracht FrankfurtHome · Bundesliga2–1Sigma OlomoucHome · UEFA Europa Conference League2–0Werder BremenAway · Bundesliga2–0Sigma OlomoucAway · UEFA Europa Conference League0–0VfB StuttgartHome · Bundesliga2–2
Bayern München
10 matchesResults9 wins · 1 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game3.5
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Bayer LeverkusenAway · DFB Pokal2–0VfB StuttgartHome · Bundesliga4–2Real MadridHome · UEFA Champions League4–3FC St. PauliAway · Bundesliga5–0Real MadridAway · UEFA Champions League2–1SC FreiburgAway · Bundesliga3–2Union BerlinHome · Bundesliga4–0AtalantaHome · UEFA Champions League4–1Bayer LeverkusenAway · Bundesliga1–1AtalantaAway · UEFA Champions League6–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare FSV Mainz 05 at home with Bayern München away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:48 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Bundesliga · 2025/26 · all league matches
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
30Matches played30
34Points earned79
8Wins25
1.2Goals scored / match3.7
1.5Goals conceded / match1.0
3Clean sheets11
10Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares FSV Mainz 05 at home with Bayern München away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed formation3-5-2Urs Fischer
- 33
Daniel BatzG - 21
Danny da CostaD - 4
Stefan PoschD - 31
Dominik KohrD - 30
Silvan WidmerM - 8
Paul NebelM - 6
Kaishu SanoM - 10
Nadiem AmiriM - 2
Phillipp MweneM - 23
Sheraldo BeckerF - 20
Phillip TietzF
Substitutes (9)
27 · Robin Zentner
22 · Nikolas Veratschnig
48 · Kacper Potulski
19 · Anthony Caci
24 · Sota Kawasaki
15 · Lennard Maloney
44 · Nelson Weiper
11 · Armindo Sieb
14 · William Bøving
Bayern München
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Vincent Kompany
- 40
Jonas UrbigG - 27
Konrad LaimerD - 3
Min-jae KimD - 21
Hiroki ItōD - 19
Alphonso DaviesD - 45
Aleksandar PavlovićM - 39
Bara Sapoko NdiayeM - 22
Raphael GuerreiroM - 8
Leon GoretzkaM - 14
Luis DíazM - 11
Nicolas JacksonF
Substitutes (9)
1 · Manuel Neuer
43 · Filip Pavić
34 · Deniz Ofli
4 · Jonathan Tah
44 · Josip Stanišić
17 · Michael Olise
10 · Jamal Musiala
9 · Harry Kane
33 · Bastian Assomo
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Batz | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 25 | — |
| Danny da Costa | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 1 |
| Stefan Posch | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 37 | 5 |
| Dominik Kohr | 85 | 6.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Silvan Widmer | 80 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Paul Nebel | 85 | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 3 |
| Kaishu Sano | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 23 | 4 |
| Nadiem Amiri | 79 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 4 | 15 | — |
| Phillipp Mwene | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 2 |
| Sheraldo Becker | 71 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Phillip Tietz | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 15 | 1 |
| Armindo Sieb | 19 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 6 | — |
| Lennard Maloney | 11 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Anthony Caci | 10 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 7 | 2 |
| Nelson Weiper | 13 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| William Bøving | 13 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 5 | 1 |
| Robin Zentner | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kacper Potulski | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sota Kawasaki | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bayern München
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Urbig | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 27 | — |
| Konrad Laimer | 90 | 6.9 | — | 2 | 1 | 68 | 1 |
| Min-jae Kim | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 98 | 1 |
| Hiroki Itō | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 78 | 1 |
| Alphonso Davies | 57 | 6.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 31 | — |
| Bara Sapoko Ndiaye | 77 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 62 | 4 |
| Aleksandar Pavlović | 45 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 48 | — |
| Raphael Guerreiro | 57 | 5.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 27 | — |
| Leon Goretzka | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 48 | 2 |
| Luis Díaz | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 23 | — |
| Nicolas Jackson | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 2 |
| Michael Olise | 45 | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 31 | — |
| Harry Kane | 45 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | — |
| Josip Stanišić | 33 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 18 | 2 |
| Jamal Musiala | 33 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Jonathan Tah | 13 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 13 | — |
| Manuel Neuer | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Pavić | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deniz Ofli | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bastian Assomo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.62 |
Snapshot from 25 Apr 2026, 04:01 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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