Tondela
1/10Wins
0.9Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Tondela’s results
Primeira LigaMatchweek 31THE MATCH CENTRETondela vs Nacional match centre
90′ · Live
0:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
J. Ramirez22′
B. Medina31′ (og)
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.0%Tondela
Draw0.1%at full time
Current result estimate99.9%Nacional
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Tondela 4.1% · no further goal 91.9% · Nacional 4.0%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.TondelaNacional
1.440Expected goals · API-Football1.260
3Shots on target6
19Total Shots16
61%Ball Possession39%
5Corner Kicks7
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
—Red Cards—
5Goalkeeper Saves4
418Total passes262
343Passes accurate175
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Primeira LigaProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | +48 | 88 | — |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | +65 | 82 | — |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | +49 | 80 | — |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | +28 | 59 | — |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | +13 | 56 | — |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | +9 | 50 | — |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | -12 | 43 | — |
| 8 |  Guimaraes | 34 | -12 | 42 | ↑ 1 |
| 9 |  Arouca | 34 | -17 | 42 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | -3 | 39 | — |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | -17 | 39 | — |
| 12 |  Nacional | 35 | -6 | 37 | ↑ 2 |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 34 | -9 | 36 | — |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 34 | -22 | 36 | ↓ 2 |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | -18 | 30 | — |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | -26 | 30 | — |
| 17 | Tondela | 35 | -30 | 28 | — |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | -40 | 21 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Tondela 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Nacional 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Nacional
2/10Wins
0.5Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 7 available matches.
Inspect Nacional’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Tondela
10 matchesResults1 wins · 6 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game0.9
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
FC PortoAway · Primeira Liga0–2GIL VicenteHome · Primeira Liga2–2GuimaraesAway · Primeira Liga0–5AVSHome · Primeira Liga0–0Rio AveHome · Primeira Liga0–1Santa ClaraHome · Primeira Liga2–2EstrelaAway · Primeira Liga2–0AlvercaHome · Primeira Liga1–1EstorilAway · Primeira Liga2–2BenficaHome · Primeira Liga0–0
Nacional
10 matchesResults2 wins · 2 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game0.5
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals2 of 10
Both teams scored2 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
AlvercaHome · Primeira Liga1–0BenficaAway · Primeira Liga0–2EstrelaHome · Primeira Liga2–0FamalicaoAway · Primeira Liga0–1EstorilHome · Primeira Liga0–1MoreirenseAway · Primeira Liga1–1SC BragaHome · Primeira Liga1–2AroucaAway · Primeira Liga0–3FC PortoHome · Primeira Liga0–1Casa PiaHome · Primeira Liga0–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Tondela at home with Nacional away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 04:23 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primeira Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
TondelaNacional
29Matches played30
21Points earned28
4Wins7
0.7Goals scored / match1.1
1.7Goals conceded / match1.4
5Clean sheets6
17Failed to score10
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Tondela at home with Nacional away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
5 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Tondela
2wins5MEETINGS
Nacional
2winsJan 2023 – Dec 2025 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with Tondela first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Tondela
Confirmed formation4-3-3Cristiano Bacci
- 31
Bernardo FontesG - 2
BebetoD - 44
João SilvaD - 20
Brayan MedinaD - 27
Rodrigo ConceiçãoD - 32
Juan RodríguezM - 10
Joe HodgeM - 79
Hugo FélixM - 70
MoudjatovicF - 16
Rony LopesF - 26
Arjen Van Der HeideF
Substitutes (9)
30 · Lucas Cañizares
5 · João Afonso
21 · Rémy Vita
8 · Helder Tavares
48 · Tiago Manso
15 · Siphephelo Sithole
90 · Makan Aïko
29 · Jordan Siebatcheu
23 · Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
Nacional
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Tiago Margarido
- 1
KaiqueG - 16
Alan NúñezD - 34
Léo SantosD - 38
Ze VitorD - 5
Jose GomesD - 22
Filipe SoaresM - 6
Matheus DiasM - 10
Daniel JúniorM - 27
Gabriel VeronM - 11
Paulinho BóiaM - 9
Jesús RamírezF
Substitutes (9)
50 · Kevyn
2 · João Aurélio
33 · Francisco Gonçalves
7 · Witi
26 · Joel Silva
18 · Andre Sousa
30 · Martim Gustavo Watts
99 · Pablo
19 · Lucas Joao
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Tondela
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernardo Fontes | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 28 | — |
| Bebeto | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 37 | 4 |
| João Silva | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 53 | 1 |
| Brayan Medina | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 51 | 2 |
| Rodrigo Conceição | 38 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 1 |
| Joe Hodge | 76 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Juan Rodríguez | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 48 | — |
| Arjen Van Der Heide | 61 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Hugo Félix | 61 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 37 | — |
| Moudjatovic | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 24 | — |
| Rony Lopes | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Tiago Manso | 52 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 2 | 34 | 5 |
| Siphephelo Sithole | 29 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 25 | 1 |
| Makan Aïko | 29 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 8 | — |
| Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka | 14 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Lucas Cañizares | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Afonso | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rémy Vita | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Helder Tavares | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Siebatcheu | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nacional
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaique | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 36 | — |
| Alan Núñez | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 2 |
| Léo Santos | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 21 | — |
| Ze Vitor | 90 | 7.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2 |
| Jose Gomes | 89 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 14 | — |
| Matheus Dias | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 2 | 31 | 2 |
| Filipe Soares | 89 | 7.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 34 | 5 |
| Gabriel Veron | 14 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Júnior | 78 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Paulinho Bóia | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 2 | 24 | 2 |
| Jesús Ramírez | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 2 |
| Pablo | 76 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 3 |
| Andre Sousa | 12 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 5 | 1 |
| João Aurélio | 9 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Joel Silva | 9 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Kevyn | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francisco Gonçalves | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Witi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martim Gustavo Watts | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Joao | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Tondela | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
Snapshot from 25 Apr 2026, 08:02 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
PUT YOUR VIEW TO THE TEST
Open practice slip +Try it with virtual funds
Start with £1,000 virtual funds. Choose a single or combine different matches in an accumulator, then track confirmed results. No real money. Record an actual bet in your manual journal ↗
Football data. A clearer perspective.Back to matches →